黄骅港航道风后骤淤快速预测方法及应用研究

Research on method and application of rapid forecast for strong wind and siltation in channel of Huanghua Port

黄骅港航道维护常年受大风淤积困扰,由于风后淤积情况不明,难以快速有效地开展应急维护疏浚工作。基于黄骅港航道骤淤与大风过程之间的强相关性,提出预测黄骅港航道大风淤积分布及淤积量的快速预测方法,采用大量实测数据结合数值模拟构建拟合数据集,从而建立大风淤积快速预报模型及预报系统。以两次实测大风过程及其淤积数据为例,对提出的预测方法进行了验证。结果表明预测结果精度较高,可为黄骅港航道风后应急疏浚提供参考。

The maintenance of the Huanghua Port waterway was plagued by strong winds and sedimentation all year round.Due to the unclear situation of sedimentation after the strong wind,it was difficult to quickly and effectively carry out emergency maintenance and dredging work.Based on the strong correlation between sudden siltation and strong wind processes in the Huanghua Port waterway,a fast prediction method for predicting the distribution and amount of strong wind siltation in the Huanghua Port waterway was proposed.A fitting dataset is constructed using a large amount of measured data combined with numerical simulation,thereby establishing a fast prediction model and prediction system for strong wind siltation.Two measured strong wind processes and sedimentation data were used to validate the prediction method proposed in this paper.The results show that the prediction results have high accuracy and can provide reference for emergency dredging of the Huanghua Port waterway after the strong wind.