基于改进熵权-突变级数方法的多式联运承载力评价研究

Evaluation of multimodal transportation carrying capacity based on improved entropy-catastrophe progression method

为了提升多式联运可持续发展路径,识别制约多式联运发展的障碍性因子,对多式联运承载力进行评估,以河南省多式联运发展软环境为研究对象,从社会承载力、运输承载力、组织承载力、环境承载力4个维度确立了14个评价指标。通过改进熵权法确定指标重要度并与突变级数相结合,提出了河南省多式联运承载力评价模型,实现对河南省18个地市的多式联运承载力评价及障碍性因子诊断。研究结果表明:郑州市、洛阳市、南阳市的多式联运承载力总隶属度大于0.567 3,承载力评价为I级水平;集装箱联运量、滚装运输铁路货运量指标是制约河南省各市多式联运承载力的主要障碍性因素。

In order to enhance the sustainable development path of multimodal transport,identify the obstructive factors that restrict the development of multimodal transport,and evaluate the carrying capacity of environmental resources for conducting multimodal transport,taking multimodal transportation in Henan Province as the research object,11 evaluation indicators are established from 3 dimensions:social carrying capacity,transportation carrying capacity and organizational carrying capacity.By improving the entropy power method to determine the importance of indicators and combining with the mutation level,an evaluation model of environmental resource carrying capacity of multimodal transport development in Henan Province was established to realize the evaluation of environmental resource carrying capacity of multimodal transport and obstructive factors of 18 in Henan Province.The research results show that the total affiliation degree of multimodal transportation environmental resource carrying capacity of Zhengzhou,Luoyang and Nanyang is greater than 0.5673,which is the level of I.The indicators such as railroad freight transportation volume are the main factors limiting the environmental resource carrying capacity of multimodal transportation development in Henan cities.