基于GTWR模型的数字经济对经济高质量发展的时空效应研究

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DIGITAL ECONOMY ON HIGH-QUALITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BASED ON GTWR MODEL

随着数字技术的不断提升,数字产业的不断发展,数字经济成为经济高质量发展的新引擎。研究数字经济与省际经济高质量发展之间的关系,对进一步促进省际经济高质量发展具有重要战略意义。论文基于2014—2020年中国30个省市的面板数据,采用熵权TOPSIS法计算数字经济和经济高质量发展的综合得分,考虑到数字经济和经济高质量发展的时空非平稳性,运用空间自相关检验和热点分析探究二者在空间上的分布规律,然后采用时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型对数字经济与我国省际经济高质量发展之间的时空响应规律进行研究,并进一步探究数字经济影响省际经济高质量发展的具体路径。研究结果表明:1)数字经济与经济高质量发展均存在较强的空间自相关性,二者的热点区域集中于我国的中部和东部地区,冷点区域集中于西部地区,数字经济空间聚集强度不断减小,高质量发展空间聚集强度维持在较高水平;2)数字经济能够显著正向促进经济高质量发展,且影响系数存在时空异质性,空间上大致呈现出由东南沿海向西北内陆递减的态势,时间上省际的差异不断缩小趋向区域协调发展;3)数字经济对经济高质量发展各子指标的驱动力存在差异性,对创新发展的驱动力最弱。因此提出如下建议:要进一步推进西部地区数字经济的区域协调发展;要提高创新驱动力,以创新促发展;要以数字经济推动省际高质量发展。

As digital technologies and digital industries are advancing,digital economy becomes a new drive to a high-quality economic development.Study on their relation is of strategic importance in promoting provincial high-quality economic development.This paper,by means of China s 30 provinces/cities 2014 to 2020 panel data,uses entropy weighted TOPSIS to comprehensively score digital economy and high-quality economic development,applies spatial auto-correlation test and hotspot to analyze their spatial distribution on the basis of their temporal-spatial instability,and employs GTWR model to discuss their temporal-spatial response law between digital economy and China s provincial high-quality economic development,and analyzes the path of digital economy to a provincial high-quality economic development.Digital economy has a strong spatial auto-correlation with high-quality economic development,with their hotspots concentrating on central and eastern China,and cold spots on western China.The spatial concentrating intensity of digital economy is diminishing while that of the high-quality development is maintained at a high level.Digital economy can outstandingly promote a high-quality economic development with impacting factor of temporal-spatial heterogeneity,showing a declining trend from south-eastern coastal to northwestern continent spatially,and a diminishing provincial difference to regional coordinated development.Digital economy variably drives the sub indicators of high-quality economic development,weakest on innovative development.This paper presents suggestions on further advancing regional coordinated development of digital economy in western China,promoting high-quality economic development through innovation,and promoting provincial high-quality development through digital economy.