全国能源消费结构低碳化的空间非均衡性及动态演进

SPATIAL IMBALANCE AND DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF CHINA S LOW-CARBON ENERGY CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE

剖析中国能源消费结构低碳化趋势、衡量其空间非均衡状态是推进能源革命及绿色发展的关键环节。文章根据2003—2020年我国各省市能源消费的面板数据,利用泰尔指数和空间自相关法,探究全国能源消费结构低碳化的空间非均衡性及动态演进特征。结果显示:1)我国能源消费结构低碳化指数总体呈稳步上升的趋势,由2003年的5.298上升至2020年的5.862;2)全国能源消费结构低碳化分布的空间非均衡性较弱,呈现先升后降态势,即泰尔指数总体呈现先上升后下降发展态势,区域间能源消费结构低碳化的差异对总体差异的影响越来越大;3)全国能源消费结构低碳化存在明显的空间正相关,空间集聚效应现象,且近年来总体空间格局分布变化较小。江浙沪地区始终呈现高高聚集的特征,而西南和华中地区则处于弱弱聚集。根据分析结果,提出构建区域利益共同体,通过技术交流等多种方式互惠互助、合作共赢,共同促进能源低碳化发展;推动产业结构高级化,激发社会创造力和市场活力,破解落后高耗能产业的模式锁定和路径依赖;优化能源产业结构,积极推进能源消费转型等政策建议。

It is a key step to study China s low-carbon energy consumption structural trend and to measure its spatial imbalance in advancing energy reform and green development.This paper,based on 2003 to 2020 energy consumption panel data of Chinese provinces/cities,uses Theil Index and spatial auto-correlation to study spatial imbalance and dynamic evolution of China s low carbon energy consumption structure.The low carbon index of China s energy consumption structure generally shows a rising trend,up 5.862 in 2020 from 5.298 in 2003.The spatial imbalance of China s low carbon energy consumption structure is weak,in a rising-then-declining trend indicated by Theil Index.Regional low-carbon energy consumption structure variance largely impacts the overall difference.China s low-carbon energy consumption structure is of obvious spatial positive correlation with spatial concentrating effect,relatively stably in overall spatial pattern,high-high concentrating in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai,weak-weak in southwest and central China.This paper presents suggestions on constructing regional interest union by mutually cooperation,on advancing industrial structure to stimulate social innovation and market,and on optimizing energy industry structure to push energy consumption transformation.