家庭住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响——基于个体和流入地多层线性模型的检验

The Impact of Family Housing Burden on the Reproductive Behavior of Floating Population:Testing of Hierarchical Linear Models Based on Individuals and Inflow Sites

能否揭示住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响机制是促进住房市场和人口和谐发展、提振生育的关键所在。在构建住房负担与流动人口生育行为关系模型基础上,采用能将流动人口微观个体和流入地宏观特征相联结的多层嵌套模型,检验住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响及长期居住意愿在其中的重要作用。在此基础上,分别按结婚时间、第一胎性别将样本分组,剖析二者关系的异质规律。研究发现:住房负担加重是流动人口生育低迷的重要原因,且流入地的人均GDP会强化其对流动人口生育的抑制作用;长期居住意愿在住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响中起到了部分中介作用,住房负担加重造成流动人口社会融入感和长期居住意愿下降,进一步加剧生育抑制效应;住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响会随流动人口结婚时间长短、第一胎性别的不同而呈现异质性特征。

Whether it is possible to reveal the mechanism of housing burden on the fertility behavior of the floating population is the key to promoting the harmonious development of the housing market and population and boosting fertility.The paper constructs a model of the relationship between the housing burden and the fertility behavior of the floating population.Then,it tests the mechanism of hous-ing burden on the fertility behavior of the floating population and the important role of long-term residence intention,using a multilayer nested model that connects the micro-individuals of the floating population with the macro-level characteristics of the inflow sites.At last,it analyzes the heterogeneity of the impact of housing burden on the reproductive behavior of floating populations by grouping the samples according to marriage time and first child gender.The results show that:first,the increased housing burden is an important reason for the low fertility of the floating population,and the GDP per capita reinforces its inhibitory effect on the fertility of the floating population;second,long-term residence intention plays a partially mediating role between them,and the increased housing burden causes a decrease in the floating population's sense of social integration and long-term residence intention,which further exacerbates the fertility inhibiting effect;third,the effect of housing burden on the fertility behavior of the floating population may show heterogene-ous characteristics depending on marriage time and sex of the first child.