人口老龄化对碳排放绩效的影响效应研究

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Carbon Emission Performance

基于全国30省2011—2020年面板数据测度碳排放绩效,并构建门槛效应模型探究人口老龄化与碳排放绩效的关系,并通过PSM-DID稳健性检验以增强门槛效应结果可信度。实证结果表明:(1)人口老龄化对碳排放绩效有正向影响,且存在门槛效应;(2)城镇化率作为门槛变量,发现其存在单门槛效应,并跨越门槛值后促进效应显著增加;(3)东部地区人口老龄化对碳排放绩效产生正向作用,而中西部地区人口老龄化对碳排放绩效具有抑制作用。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2011 to 2020,the threshold effect model was constructed to explore the relationship between population aging and carbon emission performance,and passed the PSM-DID robustness test to enhance the credibility of the threshold effect results.The empirical results show that:(1)The population aging has a positive impact on carbon emission performance,and there is a threshold effect;(2)The urbanization rate as the threshold variable has a single threshold effect and increases significantly after crossing the threshold value;(3)The population aging in the eastern region has a positive effect on carbon emission performance,while the population aging in the central and western regions suppresses carbon emission performance.