多维度视角下中国人口城镇化发展模式

Exploring the development pattern of population urbanization in China from amulti⁃dimensional perspective

在中国进入人口城镇化发展中后期的背景下,透过人口城镇化水平快速提升的表象,从结构层面对人口城镇化发展模式进行多维度探究,有助于清楚识别与理解城镇化发展的内在机制与规律,发现城镇化发展进程中存在的问题并提出合理的应对策略。该研究利用第六次和第七次人口普查分县数据,以地级行政区为基本统计单元,并将数据汇总至省级和区域层面,从城乡人口变动、城镇人口增长来源、城镇人口空间分布三个维度对2010—2020年中国人口城镇化发展模式进行了深入探究。实证结果显示:①中国人口城镇化率的提升是城镇人口和乡村人口变动共同作用的结果,城镇人口增长的贡献度高于乡村人口减少的贡献度。②乡城人口迁移仍是中国城镇人口增长的绝对主力,其次为区划调整增长,最末为自然增长。③城镇人口空间分布趋于分散,县域城镇人口变动对城镇化率的贡献度略高于市辖区城镇人口变动。④东北地区城镇化率的提升主要依赖于乡村人口的减少,城镇人口已出现自然负增长和净迁出的现象,且该地区大多数县域城镇人口流失严重。据此,各级政府应及时审视过往人口城镇化发展的结构特征,在不断促进经济发展和完善公共服务供给的前提下,重点结合区域或城市自身的自然条件特点和城镇人口增减、分布状况,制定更有针对性的人口城镇化发展策略,探索出一条符合自身实际的可持续性人口城镇化发展道路。

Against the background that China has entered the middle-late stage of population urbanization,conducting a multi-di⁃mensional exploration of its development pattern from a structural level under the superficial phenomenon of rapid urbanization is conducive to a clear identification and understanding of the internal mechanisms and rules of urbanization,the discovery of problems existing in the process of urbanization,and the proposal of rational response strategies.This paper mainly used the county-level data from China's sixth and seventh population censuses,taking the prefecture-level administrative region as the basic statistical unit,to comprehensively analyze the development pattern of China's population urbanization from 2010 to 2020 in terms of changes in the urban and rural populations,sources of urban population growth,and the spatial distribution of the urban population at the provincial and regional levels.The results showed that:①The increase in the population urbanization ratio was the result of the joint effect of changes in the urban and rural populations,and the contribution of urban population growth was slightly higher than that of rural pop⁃ulation decline.②The migration of the rural population to cities was still the absolute main force driving urban population growth in China,followed by territorial adjustment growth and natural growth.③The spatial distribution of the urban population tended to be dispersed,and the contribution of county-residing urban population changes to urbanization was slightly higher than that of urban population changes in urban areas.④The urbanization ratio increase in the northeast region was mainly the result of the decrease in the rural population.Natural negative growth and net outflows occurred in the urban population.Moreover,most of this region experi⁃enced serious losses in the county-residing urban population.Accordingly,different levels of governments should promptly examine the structural characteristics of their urbanization in the past,continuously promote economic development,and improve public ser⁃vice supply based on the characteristics of their own natural conditions and conditions of urban population changes and distributions to formulate more targeted population urbanization strategies and to explore a sustainable population urbanization path that meets their own reality.