人工智能、劳动力需求与人力资本投资

Artificial Intelligence, Labor Demand, and Human Capital Investments

基于国际机器人联合会提供的工业机器人数据以及全国人口普查和人口抽样调查数据,构建工具变量回归模型,分析人工智能发展背景下的工业机器人使用如何影响区域劳动力市场对不同技能劳动力的需求,进而如何影响个体的人力资本投资决策。研究发现,工业机器人使用对低技能和高技能劳动力的非农就业分别产生了替代和互补效应;工业机器人使用引致的劳动力需求冲击进一步对个体人力资本投资决策产生显著影响,其对低技能劳动力非农就业的替代显著提高了个体的大学本科入学概率,对高技能劳动力非农就业的促进显著提高了个体的高中和大学本科入学概率,二者都抑制了个体对职业教育的选择;人工智能普及有助于促进个体人力资本投资,从而提高人口质量和缓解人口负增长的消极影响。建议完善职普融通的教育结构,适应人工智能发展带来的劳动力需求变化。

Based on the data from the population census and sampling survey, this paper constructs instrumental variable regression models to study how the use of industrial robots affects labor demand for workers with different skills, and how the demand shocks affect individuals' human capital investments in local labor markets under the development of artificial intelligence. The study finds that the use of industrial robots has substitution effects for low-skilled non-agricultural workers, while it creates job opportunities for high-skilled non-agricultural workers. The induced demand shocks further affect individuals' human capital investments. Specifically, the substitution of employment of the low-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering regular college, and the boost of employment of the high-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering both high school and regular college. However, both effects discourage human capital investments in vocational education. The results indicate that the popularization of artificial intelligence could promote human capital investments, improving population quality and mitigating the negative impact of population decline. Meanwhile, future policies should improve and support the integration of vocational education with the regular educational system to adapt to the labor demand changes brought by the artificial intelligence development.