什么样的制度产生高人力资本经济增长效应?——一个基于动态QCA方法的研究

What kind of institution will promote high economic growth effect of human capital?Research based on dynamic QCA approach

人力资本是促进经济增长的关键因素,如何优化制度以提高人力资本的经济增长效应是各地“抢人大战”之后最应该关注的问题。本文提出了影响人力资本经济增长的制度框架,即“积累—配置—创新”制度框架。在此基础上,基于动态的汇总型fsQCA方法使用2001-2017年的省际数据,对推动人力资本经济增长效应提升的制度组态模式进行了分析。研究发现:(1)积累制度、配置制度和创新制度均不是高人力资本经济增长效应的必要条件。(2)推动人力资本经济增长效应提升的制度组态模式有4种,即配置-创新型制度组态、积累-创新型制度组态、创新型制度组态以及均衡型制度组态。(3)即使配置制度和积累制度缺失,创新制度的完善也能拉动人力资本的经济增长效应。(4)在多时段比较分析中,发现多重轨迹演化的现象,创新型制度组态的变化轨迹是“主导轨迹”、配置型制度组态的变化轨迹是“缓冲主导轨迹”、积累-创新型制度组态的变化轨迹是“转折轨迹”。区别于静态的组态视角,本文从复杂动态视角出发,既拓展了人力资本经济增长效应的研究视野,也为如何完善高人力资本经济效应的制度环境提供了新的思考。

Under the dual influences of an aging population and low fertility,China will face a long-term declining trend in the labor force.Therefore,the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan of China emphasizes that the population quality dividend should be expanded to improve the level of human capital.One could“plant sycamore trees and attract phoenixes”.However,it is more important to retain“phoenixes”and produce economic benefits.The introduction of talent is only a means but not a terminus.Whether talent can be retained ultimately depends on whether there is an environment suitable for their development and whether a good ecosystem appropriate for the long-term development of talent can be established to effectively form"talent stickiness".Diverse institutional advantages,market size and talent policies affect the flow,competition and development of human capital,ultimately determining the economic benefits of talent.Hence,what type of institution can enable talent to yield a high human capital economic effect?Optimizing institutional arrangements to improve human capital's economic growth effect is essential for the Chinese local government to attract talented people.Through literature review and analysis,this paper puts forward the institutional framework for influencing the economic growth of human capital,namely the"Accumulation-Allocation-Innovation"(AAI)institutional framework.Utilizing the dynamic pooled fsQCA method and inter-provincial data from 2001 to 2017,the study analyzes the institutional configuration pattern of the human capital's economic growth effect.The study found that(1)either accumulation institutions,allocation institutions,or innovation institutions are not necessary for the high economic growth effect of human capital,which a single condition cannot guarantee.(2)Four institutional configuration patterns promote the economic growth effect of human capital:the institutional configuration of allocation-innovation,the institutional configuration of accumulation-innovation,the institutional configuration of innovation,and the balanced institutional configuration.(3)The improvement of innovation institutions boosts the economic growth effect of human capital despite the absence of allocation and accumulation institutions.(4)Multiple paths are found in the multi-period comparative analysis:the"dominant path"(The institutional path of innovation),the"buffering dominant path"(the institutional path of allocation),and the"turning path"(the institutional path of accumulation and innovation).Some suggestions are put forward to promote the human capital economic growth effect in China based on the research results.First,an interactive federation among the accumulation institution,allocation institution and innovation institution should be strengthened.Second,even when accumulation institutions and allocation institutions are restricted,improving innovation institutions is also a way to increase the human capital economic contribution rate.Third,measures should be adjusted to local conditions and according to circumstances,and the driving path should be reasonably chosen.Finally,we attach importance to the effect of allocation institutions on human capital economic growth.Different from the static configuration perspective,this paper starts from the complex dynamic perspective,which not only expands the research field of high economic growth effect of human capital,but also provides new thinking for how to improve the institutional environment of high economic effect of human capital.