全球科研人员百年跨国流动规律、格局与势差效应——基于Scopus科学文献数据的实证研究

The Pattern,Landscape and Potential Difference Effect of Global Scientists'International Mobility over the Past Century:Evidence from Scopus Scientific Literature Data

科学研判长历史周期下科研人员的跨国流动规律、流动格局及其影响机制,对深入推进新时代人才强国战略、加快建设世界重要人才中心具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文基于1920~2020年232个国家和地区近8100万篇科学文献数据,刻画和描述科研人员百年间跨国流动规律与格局,并提出势差效应以解释其背后的演进机制。实证结果发现:(1)随着科研人员跨国流动强度周期性波动上升,小世界网络特征、“中心—外围”结构和空间动态集聚效应愈发明显,形成了向开放式流动格局演变、人才回流和环流趋势不断加强的跨国流动格局;(2)知识势差和经济势差对科研人员跨国流动规模具有显著的倒U型影响,网络位势差对科研人员跨国流动具有促进作用且其效应受到东道国(母国)网络位势的正向调节,3类势差效应表现出明显的流动周期、流动类型和流动格局异质性;(3)基于中国情境的分析表明,知识势差促进了我国与发达国家间科研人员的双向流动,经济势差促进了我国科研人员回流,而网络位势差促进了国外科研人员流入和我国科研人员回流。研究结论为我国研判科研人员跨国流动规律、构筑人才竞争比较优势和强化国际科技交流合作提供了启发与参考。

Exploring the long-term mobility pattern,landscape and underlying mechanisms of international scientist mobility holds significant theoretical and practical implications for endeavors to implement the strategy on developing a quality workforce in the new era and speed up China's upgrade toward a major world center of talent.Drawing from nearly 81 million pieces of scientific literature from 232 countries and regions over the period from 1920 to 2020,this paper characterizes and delineates the pattern and landscape of scientists'international mobility over the past century and unveils the underlying evolution mechanisms from the view of potential difference effect.The research findings are as follows:(1)As the intensity of international scientist mobility undergoes cyclical fluctuations,the characteristics of small world networks,the'center-periphery'structure,and spatial dynamic agglomeration effects have become increasingly apparent.Meanwhile,the international mobility landscape is evolving toward an open-flow structure,with the trend of talent return and circulation steadily strengthening.(2)Both the knowledge potential difference and economic potential difference exert a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the scale of scientists'international mobility.The network potential difference positively influences the international mobility of scientists and is further moderated by the network potential of the host country(home country).The three types of potential difference effect show obvious heterogeneity in different mobility cycles,mobility types,and mobility landscapes.(3)The analysis grounded in the Chinese context reveals that the knowledge potential difference fosters two-way mobility of scientists between China and developed countries.Additionally,the economic potential difference encourages the return of domestic scientists from abroad,and the network potential difference facilitates the influx of foreign scientists and the return of domestic scientists from abroad.This study provides important implications for China to grasp the pattern of international scientist mobility,build comparative advantages in talent competition,and strengthen international communication and collaboration in science and technology(S&T).