输入型通胀的宏观效应:价格分化和货币政策分析

Macro Effects of Imported Inflation:An Analysis of Price Divergence and Monetary Policy

作为能源需求大国、世界工厂和开放经济体,中国受到输入型通胀的影响。本文从实证和理论两方面,系统分析输入型通胀的经济和政策影响。来自SVAR的证据显示,进口价格冲击表现为一个典型的负向供给冲击,推高通胀同时抑制经济活动。进口价格冲击对PPI的影响远强于对CPI的影响,同时引起货币政策的紧缩性响应。反事实分析表明,货币政策的紧缩性响应主要源于进口价格冲击的直接效应,同时放大了进口价格冲击的负面影响。接着论文构建和估计了一个中等规模的开放经济模型。模型引入多种进口品和盯住进口通胀的货币政策。估计结果显示,进口价格加成冲击解释了大部分时期的PPI变化,但对CPI的解释效力有限。模型拟合脉冲响应与实证结果基本一致。CPI和PPI的价格分化主要源于组成效应,而与整体进口占比的关系不大。输入型通胀向CPI的传导不畅主要源于衰退效应弱化了国内边际成本的上涨。最优货币政策分析表明,当受到进口价格冲击影响时,放任输入型通胀、忽视稳增长和政策的持续性都会带来更低的福利水平,央行需要更加积极的应对输入型通胀,以此降低PPI和投资受到的不利影响。

As a major energy-demanding nation,the world's factory,and an open economy,China is affected by imported inflation.This paper systematically analyzes imported inflation's economic and policy impacts from empirical and theoretical perspectives.Evidence from SVAR shows that import price shocks are typical adverse supply shocks,driving inflation while suppressing economic activity.The effect of import price shocks on the Producer Price Index(PPI)is much stronger than on the Consumer Price Index(CPI),and it also triggers a contractionary response in monetary policy.Counterfactual analysis indicates that the contractionary reaction of monetary policy mainly stems from the direct effects of import price shocks while also amplifying their negative impact.Subsequently,the paper constructs and estimates a mediumsized open economy model.The model introduces multiple types of imports and a monetary policy that targets imported inflation.Estimation results show that import price markup shocks explain most PPI variations over time but have limited explanatory power for the CPI.The model's fitted impulse responses are broadly consistent with empirical findings.The divergence in CPI and PPI prices primarily originates from compositional effects rather than the overall import share.The poor transmission of imported inflation to the CPI mainly arises from the weakening of the recession effect,which mitigates the rise in domestic marginal costs.Optimal monetary policy analysis indicates that when affected by import price shocks,allowing imported inflation to go unchecked and neglecting to maintain stable growth and policy continuity will lead to a lower level of welfare.The central bank needs to respond more actively to imported inflation to reduce the adverse effects on the PPI and investment.