基于DIVA-GIS和MaxEnt的我国枇杷适生区预测和生态适宜性研究

Prediction and ecological suitability of Eriobotrya japonica in China based on Diva-GIS and MaxEnt

枇杷是原产于我国的秋冬季观花植物和重要经济果树,但其野生群体的生存现状不容乐观。基于枇杷在中国的320个有效自然分布点和不同时间段的19个生物气候变量,运用地理信息系统软件DIVA-GIS和最大熵模型MaxEnt进行适生区预测,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对预测结果进行检验和评价,同时利用刀切法(Jackknife)检验评估其潜在地理分布的影响因子。结果表明,枇杷的适生区主要在南方省份以及山东、陕西等少数北方省份,DIVA-GIS的ROC值和Maxent模型的ROC曲线面积(AUC)值都表明预测结果准确。最干季度降水量、最干月降水量、年均降水量、最冷月最低气温和温度季节性变化是影响枇杷适生区分布的主要因子。在未来气候变化情景下,枇杷的潜在地理分布总体上在南北方向有所扩张,整体面积有所减少,少部分适生区破碎化。

Eriobotrya japonica is an important ornamental flowera and an important economic fruit tree native to China in autumn and winter,but the survival status of its wild population is not optimistic.Based on 320 effective natural distribution points in China and 19 bioclimatic variables in different time periods,the distribution of potential suitable areas of Eriobotrya japonica was predicted and analyzed based on the DIVA-GIS and MaxEnt,and the predicted results were tested and evaluated by ROC curve.In addition,the influencing factors of its distribution of potential suitable areas were evaluated by Jackknife Method.The results showed that the potential suitable range of Eriobotrya japonica were mainly concentrated in southern provinces and a few northern provinces such as Shandong and Shaanxi.The ROC curve test of Diva GIS and the AUC evaluation of MaxEnt showed that the prediction result reached high precision.Through analysis,the dry season precipitation,the dry month precipitation,the average annual precipitation,the lowest temperature in the coldest month and the seasonal variation of temperature were the decisive factor affecting the distribution of Eriobotrya japonica suitable areas.In the simulated environment of future climate change,the potential suitable range of Eriobotrya japonica will expand in the north-south direction,besides the overall area will decrease,and a few suitable areas are fragmented.