延迟退休、个税递延对养老金替代率和社会福利的影响及政策优化研究

Research on the Impact of Postponed Retirement and Income-tax-deferred on Pension Replacement Rate,Social Welfare and Policy Optimization

在人口老龄化趋势下,如何充分发挥养老体系效用,并全面提升整体社会福利,将成为推动实现中国全体人民共同富裕的现代化过程中的一项重要议题。养老金替代率是衡量退休人员生活水平的重要指标,为保证退休后老年人的生活质量,提高中国的养老金替代率至关重要。首先构建了一个包含“统账结合”的世代交叠模型,在考虑缴费不实的情况下,定量考察延迟退休和个税递延政策对养老金替代率和社会福利的影响,并基于社会福利最大化和一定养老金目标替代率下探究两种政策的最优实施组合。结果显示:在一定养老金目标替代率下,个税递延可抵扣比例和延迟退休时间呈负相关关系,当养老金目标替代率发生变动,两种政策也需做出相对应的调整。从两种政策对养老金替代率和社会福利的作用效果看,延迟退休和个税递延政策均能提高养老金替代率和社会福利,两种政策搭配实施能使养老金替代率达到目标水平,但是延迟退休政策对养老金替代率和社会福利的提高程度要高于个税递延政策,且社会福利随延迟退休时间的增加而提高。此外,延迟退休和个税递延政策提高养老金替代率的路径不同,延迟退休政策能同时提高个人账户养老金替代率和统筹账户养老金替代率,进而提高养老金替代率;个税递延政策只能通过提高商业养老金替代率来提高养老金替代率。值得注意的是,在社会福利最大化水平下,预期的养老金目标替代率决定了两种政策组合实施的优先顺序。当养老金目标替代率为60%和65%时,应优先实施延迟退休政策;当养老金目标替代率达到70%,即达到不影响老年人退休生活水平的状态时,应搭配实施两种政策。因此,中国应该统筹实施延迟退休和个税递延政策提高养老金替代率,保障老年人退休后的生活水平,也能促进中国多支柱养老金体系的建设和发展。

Under the trend of aging population,how to fully leverage the effectiveness of the elderly care system and comprehensively improve overall social welfare has become an important issue in promoting the modernization process of achieving common prosperity for all people in China.The pension replacement rate is an economic indicator that measures the living standards of retires.To ensure the life quality of elder people after retirement,it is crucial to improve China's pension replacement rate,There fore a generational overlapping model is constructed including"combination of unified accounts",Taking into account inaccurate contributions,it quantitatively examines the impact of postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies on pension replacement rate and social welfare,and explores the optimal implementation combination of the two policies based on maximizing social welfare and a certain pension target substitution rate.The results show that,under a certain pension target substitution rate,there is a negative correlation between the deferred deductible ratio of income-tax-deferred and the delayed retirement time.When the pension target substitution rate changes,the two policies also need to be adjusted accordingly.In terms of the effects of the two policies on pension replacement rate and social welfare,the policies of postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies can both increase the replacement rate of pension and social welfare and the combination of these two policies can achieve the target level of pension replacement rate.But the postponed retirement policy has a higher degree of improvement on pension replacement rate and social welfare than the income-tax-deferred policy,and social welfare increases with the postponed retirement time.In addition,the paths for increasing the replacement rate of pension through postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies are different.Postponed retirement policy can simultaneously increase the replacement rate of pension in individual accounts and overall accounts,thereby increasing the replacement rate of pension.The income-tax-deferred policy can only increase the replacement rate of commercial pension by increasing the replacement rate of pension.It is worth noting that,at the level of maximizing social welfare,the expected replacement rate of pension targets determines the priority order of the implementation of the two policy combinations.When the replacement rate of pension targets is 60%or 65%,priority should be given to implementing postponed retirement policies.When the replacement rate of the pension target reaches 70%,it does not affect the retirement living standards of the old two policies should be implemented in combination.Therefore,China should coordinate the implementation of postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies to improve the pension replacement rate and ensure the living standard of retired people,and also promote the construction and development of China's multi-pillar pension system.