掺氢天然气管道故障树分析及建模软件开发

Hydrogen-blended natural gas pipeline fault tree analysis and modeling software development

针对掺氢天然气管道可能存在的风险与隐患,分析国内外各类管道失效数据,建立了掺氢天然气管道故障树,共包含10个子树和148个底事件,在掺氢管道失效库基础上采用C#程序设计语言开发了掺氢天然气管道故障树建模软件;应用建模软件对已建立的掺氢天然气管道故障树进行分析。软件计算通过行列法求解出最小割集共189个,其中一阶最小割集106个,二阶最小割集83个;采用双循环法得到148个底事件结构重要度。分析得出防腐措施是否正常工作以及自然灾害是影响掺氢天然气管道安全运行的重要因素。

For the possible risks and hidden dangers of hydrogen-blended natural gas pipeline and fully analysis the data of the various failed pipelines at home and abroad,hydrogen-blended natural gas pipeline fault tree was built which included 10 subtrees and 148 bottom events.Hydrogen-blended natural gas pipeline fault tree modeling software was developed by C#programming language in the basic of hydrogen-blended pipeline failure library.Modeling software was applied to analysis established hydrogen-blended natural gas pipeline fault tree.The software calculated and solved to get 189 minimum cuts by row and column method which included 106 first-order minimum cuts and 83 second-order minimum cuts.The structural importance of the 148 bottom events was calculated by double cycle method.According the analysis of the data,the important issues of effecting the operation safety of hydrogen-blended natural gas pipelines are natural disasters and corrosion protection.