基于DBN模型的长久运营地铁车站改扩建施工风险评估

Construction Risk Assessment for Reconstruction and Expansion of Long-term Operating Metro Stations Based on DBN Model

为保证复杂环境下长久运营地铁车站改扩建施工安全,采用贝叶斯网络、模糊理论、现场勘察和室内试验等方法,对北京地铁东四十条(DSST)站改扩建工程施工的风险评估与控制措施进行研究。结果表明:(1)通过车站状态评估、FEM-DBN工前预测、风险控制预案布置、OSM-DBN施工期反馈,提出的长久运营车站改扩建施工风险评估方法可实现工前动态预测和施工期动态反馈;(2)将该风险评估方法应用于DSST站改扩建施工,采用提出的风险控制措施后既有2号、3号线车站结构最大变形分别为-1.28 mm和-1.21 mm,结构安全稳定;(3)FEMDBN和OSM-DBN风险评估结果与专家预测和评估的结果一致,风险控制措施合理可靠。

In order to ensure construction safety in reconstruction and expansion of long-term operating metro sta⁃tions in complex environment,the risk assessment and control for reconstruction and expansion of the Dongsi Shitiao Station(DSST)of Beijing Metro have been investigated by using such methods as Bayesian network,fuzzy theory,field survey and laboratory test.As the results indicate:(1)According to the station state evaluation,FEM-DBN prework prediction,risk control contingency plan and the OSM-DBN feedback in the construction period,the proposed construction risk assessment method for reconstruction and expansion of long-term operating metro stations can en⁃able dynamic prediction before construction and dynamic feedback in the construction period;(2)This risk assess⁃ment method has been applied to reconstruction and expansion of DSST Station.After the risk control measures pro⁃posed are implemented,the maximum deformation values of the station structure of the existing Line 2 and Line 3 are-1.28 mm and-1.21 mm,and the structure remains safe and stable;(3)The risk assessment results of FEMDBN and OSM-DBN are consistent with the results of the experts'prediction and assessment,and the risk control measures are rational and reliable.