长三角地区人口空间均衡模型建构及应用

Construction and application of multi-regional population spatial equilibrium model in the Yangtze River Delta region

人口均衡是中国人口发展的重要战略目标,人口空间均衡是人口均衡的空间表现,其对区域均衡发展也有着重大意义。本文在个体迁移行为的基础上提出了一个新的多区域人口空间均衡概念,并利用工资率、区域条件指数、城市拥挤程度及地理距离等指标,构建了一个基于个体迁移行为的多区域人口—经济—资源环境均衡模型(RESPE),并以长江三角洲地区为例,分析了现有条件下均衡人口空间分布状态。研究发现:均衡状态下长三角地区人口呈现沿江、沿海集聚,主要包括苏南沿江、杭州湾沿海及南京至苏北的运河沿线,以上海为核心的人口空间高集中度圈层结构依然明显;沪宁杭等引力区具有强劲的人口集聚潜力;斥力区多紧邻准均衡区,且广泛分布于江苏北部及浙江、安徽的多数区域。在自由迁移条件下,长三角地区人口将进一步向沪宁杭及苏南地区集聚。

Population equilibrium development is the valuable guide and ideal pursuit of China's population policy and has significant implications for regional equilibrium development.However,there are still misunderstandings about interpreting population spatial equilibrium,and its scientific connotation requires further explanation and promotion.Population spatial equilibrium gives the meaning of space based on population equilibrium,which can be understood as the spatial equilibrium of population distribution.When other factors remain unchanged,the net migration between regions is zero;that is,the total number of immigrants of each region are equal to its total number of emigrants to achieve the dynamic equilibrium of population distribution among regions.A migration stream will exist between regions in an equilibrium state.Migration and equilibrium can coexist,but the population distribution between regions remains dynamic and stable,and the population spatial distribution structure will not change.Specific conditions cause the inherent stipulation of population spatial equilibrium.The equilibrium point will also change with economic,social,resource,and environmental changes.Equilibrium is a relative concept derived from the instantaneous concept;instantaneous equilibrium is an ideal state in the long term.The population spatial distribution is constantly changing from disequilibrium to equilibrium and from equilibrium to disequilibrium.This paper describes a theoretical model of multi-regional population spatial equilibrium based on the regional wage rate,human climate suitability index,urban crowding degree,and distance.Using the Yangtze River Delta as an example,the study analyzes the equilibrium population spatial distribution under current economic,social,environmental,and population conditions.The study found that the population of the study area is concentrated along the river and the coast,mainly in the south of Jiangsu,along the coast of Hangzhou Bay,and the canal from Nanjing to the north of Jiangsu.By comparing the equilibrium population with the current distribution,the Yangtze River Delta can be divided into quasi-equilibrium,attractive,and repulsive areas.The attractive areas,such as Shanghai,Nanjing,and Hangzhou,have large population agglomeration potential.In contrast,the repulsive areas are mainly located in northern and western Anhui,northern Zhejiang,and other areas close to the quasi-equilibrium area.This suggests that under free migration,the population will further concentrate in the areas of Shanghai,Nanjing,Hangzhou,and southern Jiangsu.