经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的影响

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Restructuring of Value Chains in the Asia-Pacifi c Region

基于亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出(ADB-MRIO)数据库,本文构建了2008~2020年的亚太价值链重构指标,考察经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的影响效应及其作用机制,并进一步探究了互联网发展影响经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的作用效果。结果表明:经济政策不确定性上升总体上推动了价值链参与度由全球向亚太区域重构,该影响通过外商直接投资的渠道起作用,且上述影响在制造业中尤其显著。互联网发展强化了经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的促进效果。鉴于此,中国应稳定经济政策更新频率,加大产业体系安全保护,加强互联网建设,深化亚太区域经贸合作。

Based on the ADB-MRIO database,this paper constructs the 2008~2020 Asia-Pacific value chain restructuring indicators from the two dimensions of value chain migration and status adjustment,examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the restructuring of Asia-Pacific value chain and its mechanism,and further analyzes how the development of the Internet affects the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the restructuring of Asia-Pacific value chain.The results find that rising economic policy uncertainty has generally driven the shift of value chain participation to the Asia-Pacific Region,and that the impact is played through the channels of FDI.At the same time,increased economic policy uncertainty can help to enhance countries’division of labor in Asia-Pacific value chains and play a role through innovation.And the above impact is particularly significant in the manufacturing industry.The development of the Internet has strengthened the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the migration of participation and division of labor in Asia-Pacific value chains.In view of this,China should stabilize the frequency of economic policy updates,increase the security protection of the industrial system,strengthen Internet construction,and deepen economic and trade cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region.