长期护理保险对老年家庭支出行为的影响——基于健康风险冲击的视角

The Impact of Long-Term Care Insurance on the Spending Behavior of Elderly Households ——From the Perspective of Health Risk

我国经济进入新发展阶段,需要不断扩大国内需求、激发消费潜能。随着国内老龄人口的增多,激发老年群体的消费潜能将对促进国内大循环有积极的作用。研究发现老年人的储蓄率会随着年龄增加而提高,其主要原因是为了预防健康风险冲击。而长期护理保险通过风险分散机制能够有效缓解健康风险冲击,对家庭消费支出行为产生影响。本研究利用CFPS(2012—2018年)数据,基于健康风险视角,探讨了长期护理保险政策对家庭消费支出决策的影响。分析结果显示,长期护理保险制度的实施使老年家庭储蓄率下降了原来水平的9.7%,同时显著增加了消费支出,有效促进了老年家庭消费,其中健康消费和文娱消费显著增加;健康风险越大,长期护理保险对于促进老年家庭消费的效果越明显。此外,长期护理保险政策对城镇以及高收入家庭消费的促进作用更显著。

The Chinese economy has entered a new stage of development,which requires expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption potential.As the aging population increases,stimulating the consumption potential of the elderly will have a positive impact on promoting the domestic cycle.Studies have found that the saving rate of the elderly increases with age,and the main reason is to prevent health risk.Longterm care insurance can effectively alleviate health risk and affect household consumption expenditure behavior.From the perspective of health risk,the study applies the CFPS(2012-2018) data to explore the impact of longterm care insurance policies on household consumption expenditure decisions.The analysis results show that the implementation of the long-term care insurance system has reduced the savings rate of elderly households by 9.7%,while significantly increasing consumption expenditure,effectively promoting elderly household consumption,with a significant increase in health and entertainment consumption.The greater the health risk,the more significant the effect of long-term care insurance on promoting consumption in elderly households would be.In addition,longterm care insurance policy has a more significant effect on increasing the consumption in urban and high-income households.