中国肉羊养殖碳排放时空演化及减排路径研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Emission Reduction Path of Carbon Emissions from Mutton Sheep Breeding in China

为识别中国肉羊养殖碳排放时空演化特征并探究其减排路径,本研究在采用部分生命周期法测度2002-2019年中国各省(市、区)肉羊养殖碳排放的基础上,将生产效率、区域结构、产业结构、规模效应及技术发展纳入同一研究框架建立LMDI模型。结果表明,胃肠发酵和粪便管理系统产生的碳排放是肉羊养殖碳排放主要来源,两者占比高达75.58%~90.75%;饲料粮种植、饲料粮加工和肉羊饲养耗能碳排放量均呈现上升趋势,尤其是饲料粮种植环节的增长幅度更为显著;中国中度、偏高肉羊养殖碳排放区呈现明显的动态演化态势,而低、高肉羊养殖碳排放区空间格局基本保持不变;规模效应是肉羊养殖碳减排的最大贡献者,技术发展效应是碳增排的最主要推动因素。

In order to identify the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from mutton sheep breeding in China and explore its emission reduction path,this study adopted partial life cycle method to measure the carbon emissions from mutton sheep breeding in China's provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2002 to 2019.The LMDI model was established by integrating production efficiency,regional structure,industrial structure,scale effect and technological development into the same research framework.The results show that the carbon emission from gastrointestinal fermentation and fecal management system are the main sources of carbon emissions from mutton sheep breeding,which accounting for 75.58%~90.75%.The carbon emissions of feed grain planting,feed grain processing and mutton sheep raising all show an increasing trend,in particular,the growth rate of feed grain planting is more significant.China's medium and slightly high carbon emission areas of mutton sheep breeding show an obvious dynamic evolution trend,while the spatial pattern of low and high carbon emission areas remain basically unchanged.Scale effect is the largest contributor to carbon emission reduction in mutton sheep breeding,and technology development effect is the main driving factor of carbon emission increase.