中国粮食主产区萎缩态势及其福利损失

The Shrinking Trend andWelfare Loss of China's Main Grain Producing Areas

改革开放以来,中国粮食生产重心持续北移,粮食主产区出现萎缩态势,体现为主产区的边界北移、数量和播面减少,粮食调出向少数省份过度集中。这种萎缩是经济利益驱动、各主体利益冲突、支持政策乏力等多方面因素综合作用造成的。本文通过构建“效率+公平+安全”的三维新福利观对中国粮食主产区萎缩的福利损失进行分析,结果表明,中国粮食主产区萎缩不仅导致粮食产销“两极化”,加剧粮食安全风险,而且造成资源过度消耗和污染威胁、粮食生产与水资源错配,加剧区域发展的不平衡性,由此带来经济效率和社会公平的损失。为遏制主产区进一步萎缩态势,更好地保障国家粮食安全,需要对粮食产销区进行重新划分,明确产销区和平衡区共同保障粮食安全的责任,优化产销区布局,完善利益补偿机制,深化粮食产销协作,构建以主产区为主要力量、主销区和产销平衡区共同支撑的粮食安全保障新格局,确保实现国家粮食安全的底线任务。

Since the reform and opening up,the center of grains production in China has continued to move northward,and the main grain-producing areas have been shrinking,which is reflected in the northward shifting of the boundaries of the main production areas,the reduction of the number and sowing areas,and the over-concentration of grains transferring out to a few provinces.This shrinkage is caused by a combination of factors such as economic interest drive,conflict of interests of various subjects,and lack of supportive policies.This paper analyzes the welfare loss of the shrinkage of China’s main grain producing areas by constructing a new three-dimensional welfare concept of efficiency+equity+security.The results show that the shrinkage of China's main grain-producing regions has not only led to the“bipolarization”of grain production and marketing and increased the risk of food security,but also caused the threat of excessive consumption of resources and pollution,and the mismatch between grain production and water resources,and exacerbated the imbalance of regional development,which in turn led to the loss of economic efficiency and social equity.In order to curb the further shrinkage of the main production areas and better guarantee national food security,it is necessary to reclassify the grain production and marketing areas,clarify the responsibilities of production and marketing areas in jointly guaranteeing food security,optimize the layout of production and marketing areas,improve the compensation mechanism for benefits,deepen collaboration between grain production and marketing,and build a new pattern of food security guarantee that is supported by the main production areas as the main force and by the main marketing areas and production-and-marketing balance areas as the common support to ensure the realization of the bottom-line task of national food security.