航运中心与城市经济互动关系分析——上海与新加坡比较

Analysis of Interactive Relationship Between Shipping Center and City Economy:A Comparison Between Shanghai and Singapore

港口与城市经济的协调发展有助于提高港口竞争力和城市影响力。以上海和新加坡为比较对象,采用熵权-灰色关联模型探究港口与城市经济的关联度。通过构建向量自回归模型,从对外贸易、生产总值和产业结构探究港城互动关系。结果表明,城市经济与航运中心存在较强关联。新加坡对外贸易与港口间具有稳定的双向促进效应,上海市外向型经济对航运中心的驱动作用较弱。上海市生产总值能为港口发展提供有力的腹地支撑,港口对城市生产总值的辐射带动效应并不明显。上海市第三产业与港口间存在长期的潜在拉动力,但现阶段上海市第二产业对航运中心的发展仍起主导作用。从长期效果看,第三产业扩张政策对航运中心的促进作用强于第二产业。针对上述结论,分析原因并提出增强港口韧性、促进“港产城”融合发展等建议。

The coordinated development of the port-city economy can enhance the competitiveness and influence of the port.This paper conducts a comparative analysis between the international shipping centers of Shanghai and Singapore.Employing the entropy weight-gray correlation model and the vector autoregressive model,it examines the interactive relationship between the port and the city,focusing on foreign trade,gross product value,and industrial structure.The findings reveal a strong correlation within the port-city economy.In Singapore,foreign trade and port exhibit a stable two-way promotion effect,whereas the export-oriented economy in Shanghai has a modest driving effect on the shipping center.The GDP of Shanghai emerges as a pivotal support for the port,although the radiating effect of the shipping center on GDP appears less pronounced.A long-term driving force is identified between tertiary industry and the port in Shanghai.The secondary industry in Shanghai exerts a predominant influence on the shipping center.Therefore,policies promoting the expansion of the tertiary industry demonstrate a more potent influence on the shipping center than those favoring the secondary industry.Based on the conclusions,it proposes some suggestions,such as bolstering port resilience and integrating port-industry-city development.