世界经济面临的增长挑战与政策应对转变

Growth Challenges Facing the World Economy and Changes in Policy Responses

疫情以来,全球宏观范式从低增长、低通胀、低利率、高杠杆的“三低一高”范式,过渡到高通胀、高利率、高杠杆、低增长的“三高一低”范式。各国经济走势呈现分化,主要与其资产负债表表现相关。资产负债表改善的经济体实际国内生产总值(GDP)增速表现更好,而资产负债表恶化的经济体实际GDP增速表现不佳。美国经济表现超预期,经济接近“软着陆”,但在通货膨胀、房地产市场等方面仍面临结构性问题。2023年中国经济增长符合预期,但增长动能较弱,主要由于外部需求、美元利率、中美关系、宏观政策等方面压力。未来一段时间,世界经济仍将维持滞胀格局,延续时长主要取决于全球地缘政治冲突走向以及能否找到新的重塑全球增长的方式。2024年,中国经济面临的逆风有望转为顺风,不利因素或将逐一缓解,不过宏观政策力度仍有待强化,以帮助经济维持在相对稳定的环境,度过新旧动能转换的关键时点。下一阶段世界经济主要存在三方面潜在风险点:一是美国企业债市场风险,特别是高收益企业债即垃圾债市场风险;二是美国房地产市场风险,尤其是商业房地产市场风险;三是未来主要国家政府债务压力将会显著攀升。

Since the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic,the global macroeconomic paradigm has evolved from the"three lows and one high"mode featuring low growth,low inflation,low interest rates,and high leverage to the"three highs and one low"mode featuring high inflation,high interest rates,high leverage,and low growth.The concerned countries have had divergent economic growth trends,which are mainly related to their balance sheet performance.Economies with improved balance sheets have performed better in terms of real GDP growth,while those with deteriorating balance sheets have performed poorly.The US economy has fared well,beating expectations,and is close to achieving a soft landing,although it has distinct structural problems in terms of inflation,the real estate market,and et al.China will reach its full-year growth target in 2023,but its growth momentum has been weak,which is mainly attributable to pressures from external demand,the interest rates in the US,Sino-US relations,and macroeconomic policies,among others.In the coming years,the world economy is expected to maintain a stagflation pattern,and the duration of this pattern depends largely on the direction of global geopolitical conflicts and whether new ways to reshape global growth can be found.In 2024,the headwinds facing China's economy are expected to turn into tailwinds,and the unfavorable factors may ease one by one.However,macroeconomic policies still need to be strengthened to help the economy maintain a relatively stable environment and pass the critical point of transition between old and new driving forces for growth.There are three main potential risks in the world economy in the next stage:First,it is the US corporate bond market risk,especially high-yield corporate bonds risk,also known as junk bond market risk;second,it is the US real estate market risk,especially the commercial real estate market risk;third,it is the debt pressure facing governments of major countries in the future.