巴以冲突:根源、影响与出路

Palestinian-Israeli Conflict:Root Causes,Impacts and Solutions

新一轮巴以冲突持续发酵,对地区乃至国际政治经济格局造成不同程度影响,引发国际社会的高度关注。巴以冲突堪称“世纪冲突”,具有非常复杂的历史根源、宗教文化根源和现实根源。新一轮巴以冲突与十多年来恶性循环的多轮巴以冲突一样,都是中东和平进程长期脱轨、“两国方案”陷入困境的结果。新一轮冲突让巴以问题重回国际视野,成为国际政治议程的一部分。冲突对地区和解产生负面影响,不利于中东地区逐渐汇聚形成的缓和潮扩展;对美国的外交政策产生较大冲击,打乱其中东战略部署;引发国际舆论战、认知战,加剧美欧等经济体内部分歧与社会撕裂。截至2023年年底,冲突对区域和全球经济以及能源市场产生的影响总体有限,对全球石油实际产能的影响较小,出口方、进口方都没有把石油“武器化”的资本,将石油“武器化”也较难成为巴以冲突中相关国家的首选项。现阶段,巴以冲突向周边的蔓延和外溢仍然有限,加沙人道主义危机以及如何治理加沙成为关注的焦点,切实落实“两国方案”才是解决巴以问题的根本出路。新一轮巴以冲突爆发后,中国始终站在和平、公道、国际法、大多数国家的共同愿望以及人类良知的一边,积极推动和平解决冲突。

The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to ferment,causing varying degrees of impact on the regional and even international political and economic landscape,arousing great concern from the international community.Known as the"conflict of the century",the conflict has very complex and profound historical,religious,cultural and realistic root causes.The new round of the conflict,as the multiple rounds of Palestinian-Israeli conflicts in the past more than ten years,has been trapped in a vicious cycle.It is the result of the long-term derailment of the Middle East peace process and the predicament of the"two-state solution".The new round of conflict has brought the international attention back to the Palestinian-Israeli issue,making it part of the current international political agenda.The conflict has a negative impact on regional reconciliation,which is not conducive to the expansion of the gradual convergence of detente in the Middle East;has quite a great impact on the foreign policy of the United States,disrupting its Middle East strategic deployment;and triggers international public opinion wars and cognitive wars,exacerbating internal divisions and tearing apart society in European countries and the US.But the impact of the conflict on regional and global economies and energy markets has been limited by the end of 2023.Neither exporters nor importers have the capital to weaponize oil,and weaponizing oil is unlikely to be an option in Palestinian-Israeli conflict.At this stage,the spread and spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are still limited.However,the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and governance of Gaza will become the focus of attention.The effective implementation of the"two-state solution"is the fundamental way out for the Palestinian-Israeli issue.After the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out,China has always stood on the side of peace,justice,international law,the common aspiration of most countries,and human conscience,and actively promoted the peaceful resolution of the conflict.