房地产调控的消费挤出效应:基于房地产去库存政策的调查

Research on the Impact of Real Estate De-stocking on Residents'Consumption under Supply-side Structural Reform

居民消费是宏观经济的重要支撑之一,房地产市场又与微观居民家庭密切相关,住房政策的调整会通过家庭支出结构,进而对消费产生重要影响。基于2013—2019年中国城市数据和凯恩斯绝对收入假说,定量考察供给侧结构性改革背景下房地产去库存政策影响居民消费的效应和机制。实证分析结果显示,去库存政策对居民消费产生显著的负向影响,在经济发展水平高的地区和城市的影响更大,对非生存类商品消费产生了更明显的抑制作用。机制检验表明,这一结果源于家庭住房支出增加产生的挤出效应,房价上升的财富效应不够明显。为破解稳房价、促销费和去库存的“不可能三角”和实现经济平稳发展,在坚持“房住不炒”基本方针不动摇的前提下,扩大保障性住房供给,降低房地产行业对宏观经济的负面效应。

There is a significant substitution relationship between household spending on housing and non-housing consumption.Real estate regulation policies significantly heterogeneous household housing spending,which has an important impact on residential consumption.Based on Chinese urban and inter-provincial panel data and the Keynesian absolute income hypothesis from 2013-2019,this paper quantitatively examines the effects and mechanisms of real estate destocking policies affecting residential consumption in the context of supply-side structural reform.The results of the empirical analysis show that the destocking policy has a significant negative effect on residential consumption,with a greater impact on regions and cities with high level of economic development and a significant depressive effect on the consumption of non-subsistence goods.The mechanism test suggests that this effect comes more from the crowding-out product generated by destocking.To break the“impossible triangle”of stabilizing housing prices,promoting consumption and destocking,and achieving stable economic development,it is necessary to adhere to the basic policy of“no speculation in housing”,expand the supply of subsidized housing,curb speculative demand in the real estate market,and gradually expand the scope of the real estate.The size of the pilot real estate tax should be progressively expanded.