四川省天然气产业安全—经济—环保耦合协调度研究——基于能源“不可能三角”视角

Natural-gas industry in Sichuan Province:A coupling degree of security-economy environmental protection from the perspective of energy"trilemma"

天然气产业安全、经济和环保耦合协调发展是推动能源低碳转型的关键抓手。通过引入能源“不可能三角”理论,基于四川省2006—2021年实际数据实证分析天然气产业短期安全稳定、中期经济可行和长期低碳环保水平,深入探讨多维因素间的耦合协调程度。研究结果表明:(1)安全稳定水平较高,这由于资源禀赋优势助力自给水平富足有余,同时省域管网系统发达、运输保障能力强;经济可行水平较低,这由于计划经济模式下的价格机制难以及时体现市场供求关系,西部恶劣自然环境、分散居民分布也将限制市场扩张、降低经济效益;低碳环保水平有待提升,这由于消费比重增大将导致产业自身碳排放同步增加,天然气与新能源融合发展成为必然趋势。(2)安全—经济—环保耦合协调度呈上升趋势,这得益于质量、效率和动力三大变革。安全—环保协调度最优,在政策助推层面能源低碳转型与供应安全伴生共存;安全—经济协调度较高,供应安全为市场扩张提供资源支撑、稳定价格水平,而繁荣市场将激励能源勘探开发和基础设施延伸;经济—环保协调度较低,规模效应下能源消费碳贡献与系统视角下低碳能源消费占比提升对协调度的激励和阻碍作用同时存在、相互抵消。

For natural-gas industry,the harmonious development coupling security and economy with environmental protection is the key to push the transition of low-carbon energy.By introducing one theory of energy"trilemma",this paper analyzes the short-term security and stability,middle-term economic feasibility and long-term low-carbon environmental protection in this industry based on Sichuan provincial data from 2006 to 2021,and discusses the coupling degree among multiple factors.Results show that(i)the level of both security and stability is relatively high because of resource-endowed superiority conducive to surplus self-sufficiency,well developed provincial pipelines and powerful transportation guarantee.The level of economic feasibility is lower because price mechanisms under the mode of planned economy can hardly reflect a market's supply-demand relation in time,and harsh natural environment and scattered settlement in western China confines market expansion and reduces economic benefits.There is room for improving the level of low-carbon environmental protection since the increasing consumption proportion may lead to the synchronous carbon-emission increase,and the integrated development of natural gas and new energy will be an inevitable trend;and(ii)resulted from the three major reforms on quality,efficiency and power,the coupling degree has been on the rise,namely an optimal degree of both security and environmental protection since the association and coexistence of low-carbon energy transition and safe supply can be realized at the level of policy promotion;a higher degree of both security and economy as this supply may provide resource support for market expansion and maintain stable price,while prosperous markets stimulate energy exploitation and infrastructure extension;and a lower degree of both economy and environment protection since the carbon contribution to energy consumption and the increase in the proportion of low-carbon energy consumption exert incentive and hindering effects simultaneously on the coupling degree to offset each other.