基于灰色系统理论的中国天然气供需预测预警研究

Predicting and early warning the natural-gas supply and demand in China based on grey theories

天然气具有低碳、清洁、高效等特征,已成为中国主体能源之一,其供需矛盾凸显,开展天然气供需预测预警研究对“双碳”目标的顺利实现具有重要意义。从供给、需求、市场、社会4个维度,选择储采比、自给率、储量指数、消费占比、消费强度、进口依存度、进口集中度、保障系数、碳强度及人均GDP等10个预警指标,构建中国天然气供需预测预警指标体系。利用GM(1,1)模型对各项预警指标进行预测,从客观和主观视角,分别采取熵值法和G1法确定指标权重,运用灰色关联分析法对中国天然气供需状态进行预警。研究结果表明:①对中国天然气供需影响较大的4个因子依次为储采比、自给率、储量指数、进口集中度,中国天然气供需安全度呈稳步上升趋势;②在“十四五”期间,中国天然气供需状况处于临界安全状态,达到Ⅲ级;“十五五”期间由临界安全状态过渡到安全状态,最终达到Ⅳ级。结论认为:持续推进油气增储上产行动计划、构建天然气多元进口体系、加快天然气储气机制建设、加快新能源开发利用等是保障中国天然气供给安全的有效措施。

As a kind of low-carbon,clean and efficient energy,natural gas has become one of the main energy sources in China.However,its supply-demand contradiction is prominent.Therefore,it is of great significance to conduct supply-demand prediction and early earning for smooth achieving the"dual carbon"goal.From four aspects of supply,demand,market and society,ten early-warning indicators were selected to construct the supply-demand prediction and early-warning indicator system.And ten indicators include reserve-production ratio,self-sufficiency degree,reserve index,consumption proportion,consumption intensity,import dependence ratio,import concentration,guarantee coefficient,carbon intensity and per capita GDP.All these indicators were predicted from the GM(1,1)model.In addition,objectively and subjectively,both entropy and G1 methods were employed for determining the weight of each indicator,while grey correlation analysis method for the early warning.Results show that(i)there are four indicators affecting this supply and demand,reserve-production ratio,followed by self-sufficiency degree,reserve index and import concentration.And the security degree of the supply and demand shows a trend of stable increase;and(ii)the natural-gas supply and demand is in the critical security state during the 14th Five-Year Plan,i.e.,at level III.And it will transit to the security state during the 15th Five-Year Plan and eventually achieve level IV.In conclusion,four active measures to ensure China's natural-gas security have been made,such as continuously promoting action plans of oil and gas reserve and production increase,constructing diversified natural-gas import systems,accelerating the construction of natural-gas storage mechanisms and speeding up both development and utilization of new energies.