WavewatchⅢ模拟和统计方法在最大波高预报方面的评测分析

Analysis of maximum wave height forecasts based on WavewatchⅢsimulation and statistical relationship methods

为了研究WavewatchⅢ(WWⅢ)海浪模型对最大波高的模拟能力及其与传统统计关系方法的差异,通过对两次台风浪过程的后报模拟和半年的业务化预报,分析了WWⅢ数值模拟的准确度及其与统计关系方法的精度差异。研究结果表明:WWⅢ数值模拟的最大波高(Hmax)的精度略低于有效波高(Hs),但也达到了24 h预报相对误差(H_(max)≥1 m)低于18%、相关系数高于0.94的水平,模拟精度可靠,可以用于业务化预报;与两种统计关系方法(H_(max)和H_(s)分别为1.42和1.52)计算的最大波高相比,数值模拟的精度总体与其相当,但在H_(max)和H_(s)比值大于1.65这种易出现危险的海况下,数值模拟具有更高的准确性,更适合应用于海浪预警报服务。

In order to assess the performance of WavewatchⅢ(WWⅢ)model on maximum wave height simula tion and its difference from the traditional statistical relationship methods,the accuracy of WWⅢsimulation and its deviation from the statistical relationship methods are analyzed through the hindcast simulation of two typhoon wave processes and the semi-annual operational forecasts.It is found that:The accuracy of maximum wave height of WWⅢsimulation is slightly lower than that of significant wave height,but still reaches the conditions of the relative error of 24-hour forecast(under the condition of maximum wave height not less than 1 meter)is lower than 18%,and the correlation coefficient is higher than 0.94.The accuracy of WWⅢsimulation is reliable and can be used in operational forecasts.Compared with the maximum wave height calculated by two statistical relationship methods(the ratios of H_(max)and H_(s)are 1.42 and 1.52),the accuracy of WWⅢsimulation is generally equivalent to them.However,when the ratio of H_(max)and H_(s)is greater than 1.65,which indicates dangerous sea conditions,the WWⅢsimulation has better accuracy and is more suitable for the early warning of sea waves.