上海市远郊60岁及以上人群代谢综合征趋势分析及ROC曲线预测

Trend Analysis and ROC Curve Prediction of Metabolic Syndrome among People Aged 60 and above in the Suburbs of Shanghai

目的:分析上海市远郊60岁及以上人群代谢综合征患病情况及变化趋势,比较血糖、身体质量指数对代谢综合征的评价作用,为相关部门制定代谢综合征防控措施提供参考依据。方法:2022—2023年,选取在上海市金山区高新区社区参与健康体检的19576名老年居民进行问卷调查、身体测量、生物样本采集。结果:参与体检的老年居民中,70~74岁年龄段人群代谢综合征患病率最高(24.8%),≥80岁年龄段人群代谢综合征患病率最低(17.8%);在代谢综合征组分数量方面,65~69岁年龄段人群包含1~4项的组分数量占比均为最高;男性空腹血糖、身体质量指数切点分别为6.05 mmol/L、25.0 kg/m2,ROC曲线下面积分别为0.720和0.824;女性葡萄糖、身体质量指数切点分别为5.92 mmol/L、25.0 kg/m2,ROC曲线下面积分别为0.714和0.798。结论:身体质量指数、空腹血糖是预测社区老年居民代谢综合征的重要变量,相关部门应重视身体质量指数、空腹血糖评估对社区居民代谢综合征的预测价值。

OBJECTIVE Analyze the change trend of metabolic syndrome in the elderly,and compare the evaluation effect of blood glucose and body mass index on metabolic syndrome.METHODS A survey was conducted among 19576 elderly residents aged 60 and above who participated in physical examination in the community of Jinshan High-tech Zone in Shanghai in the past year.The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome is based on the diagnostic criteria of the diabetes Branch of the Chinese Medical Associa⁃tion.SPSS24.0 statistical software draws the working characteristic(ROC)curve of subjects with metabolic syndrome and calculates the area under the curve(AUC).RESULTS The highest proportion of metabolic syndrome was 24.8%in the age group of 70~74 years old,and the lowest proportion was 17.8%in the age group of≥80 years old.The age group with the highest proportion of 1~4 items accompanied by group scores was 65~69 years old.The cutoff points of glucose and body mass index were 6.05mmol/L and 25.0kg/m2,respectively,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.720 and 0.824,respectively.The cutoff points of female glucose and body mass index were 5.92 mmol/L and 25.0 kg/m2 respectively,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.714 and 0.798 respec⁃tively.CONCLUSION BMI and fasting blood glucose are important variables to predict metabolic syndrome in elderly residents in the community.In the community,we should pay attention to the predictive value of BMI and fasting blood glucose in evaluating the metabolic syndrome of community residents.