2012—2022年烟台市肺结核流行病学特征及趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2012 to 2022 in Yantai

目的分析肺结核流行病学特征,预测肺结核发病趋势。方法在中国疾病预防控制信息系统中的结核病管理信息系统中收集并整理2012—2022年烟台市肺结核发病数据,分析其流行病学特征;使用2012—2021年数据建立最优模型,以2022年数据检验模型,并预测2023—2025年发病情况。结果2012—2022年烟台市肺结核发病率总体呈下降趋势(P<0.001);每年1、2月与10月发病数较少,3—5月发病数较高。不同区市中龙口市发病率最高(32.79/10万),福山区最低(9.28/10万)。人群分布上,男性发病率是女性的2.86倍,20~<40岁人群发病占比最高,其次为≥60岁人群;职业分布上以农民为主要发病群体。经过建模、拟合,得出ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12为最优模型,模型检验结果显示2022年1—12月实际值与预测值的平均相对误差为15.07%,预测2023—2025年烟台市肺结核月发病数分别为57~103人、48~94人、39~85人。结论烟台市不同区市肺结核发病情况存在差别,男性、农民、青壮年和老年人等为肺结核防治重点人群;预测烟台市2023—2025年肺结核发病呈下降趋势,可为相关部门防控结核病提供参考。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis and predict the trend of tuberculosis incidence.Methods The tuberculosis incidence data of Yantai City from 2012 to 2022 were collected and sorted out from the Tuberculosis Management Information System of the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System,and the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis were analyzed;the data from 2012 to 2021 were used to establish an optimal model,the data of 2022 were used to test the model and predict the incidence of tuberculosis from 2023-2025.Results The incidence of tuberculosis in Yantai showed an overall decreasing trend from 2012 to 2022(P<0.001);the number of incidence cases was less in January,February and October each year,and more from March to May.Longkou City had the highest incidence rate(32.79/100000)and Fushan District had the lowest(9.28/100000)in different districts and cities.In population distribution,the incidence rate of males was 2.86 times that of females,and the highest proportion of incidence was found in people aged 20 to under 40 years old,followed by people aged≥60 years old;farmers were the main incidence group in occupational distribution.After modeling and fitting,ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was derived as the optimal model,and the model test results showed that the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value from January to December 2022 was 15.07%,and the predicted number of monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Yantai City from 2023 to 2025 was 57-103,48-94,and 39-85 respectively.Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis in different districts and cities of Yantai City varies,and men,farmers,young adults and the elderly are the key populations for the prevention and control of tuberculosis;it is predicted that the incidence of tuberculosis in Yantai City will show a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2025,which can be used as a reference for the relevant departments in the prevention and control of tuberculosis.