基于SaTScan的2017—2021年南宁市耐多药肺结核疫情时空分析

Spatial and temporal analysis of MDR-TB epidemic based on SaTScan in Nanning in 2017-2021

目的 分析2017—2021年南宁市耐多药肺结核发病在乡镇/街道尺度的时空聚集传播特点,为卫生行政部门实现耐多药肺结核防控精准施策,提供科学参考依据。方法 基于南宁市2017—2021年耐多药肺结核病例数据,使用时空扫描分析软件SaTScan v9.7对耐多药肺结核病例聚集区域进行回顾性分析。结果 通过单纯空间扫描分析发现3个一级聚集区(聚集中心分别为2017年江南区福建园街道、2019年西乡塘区新阳街道、2020年邕宁区中和镇),1个二级聚集区(聚集中心为2020年马山县金钗镇);单纯时间扫描聚集在2019年5月至2020年12月;时间-空间聚集探测到西乡塘区新阳街道为一级聚集区中心,邕宁区中和镇为二级聚集区中心,马山县金钗镇为三级聚集区中心。结论 南宁市耐多药肺结核疫情呈时空聚集性分布,尤以西乡塘区新阳街道的时空聚集性最高,应重点关注并采取针对性防控措施控制疫情。

Objectives To analyze the spatial and temporal aggregation of multidrug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis(MDR-TB)incidence in Nanning at the township/street scale from 2017 to 2021,to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the spread of MDR-TB in Nanning,and to provide a scientific reference basis for the health administrative departments to achieve the precise implementation of MDR-TB prevention and control.Methods Based on the data of MDR-TB cases in Nanning from 2017 to 2021,the spatial-temporal scanning analysis software SaTScan v9.7 was used to retrospectively detect and analyze the areas where MDR-TB cases gathered.Results Through simple spatial scanning analysis,it was found that there were three first-class aggregation areas(the aggregation center was Fujian yuan Street,Jiangnan District,2017,Xinyang Street,Xixiangtang District,2019,and Zhonghe Town,Yongning District,2020),and one second-class aggregation area(the aggregation center was Jinchai Town,Mashan County,2020).Simple time scanning showed that the clustering occurred from May 2019 to December 2020.Temporal and spatial aggregation analysis showed that Xinyang Street in Xixiangtang District was the center of the first-class aggregation area,Zhonghe Town in Yongning District was the center of the second-class aggregation area,and Jinchai Town in Mashan County was the center of the third-class aggregation area.Conclusion The multidrug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic in Nanning is distributed in an aggregated manner,especially in Xinyang Street,Xixiangtang District,which has the highest spatial and temporal aggregation.It is necessary to focus on and take regional prevention and control measures to control the epidemic.