2014—2020年重庆市水痘流行特征分析及疫情预测

Epidemic characteristics and prediction of varicella in Chongqing in 2014-2020

目的 分析2014—2020年重庆市水痘疫情流行特征,为制定科学有效的水痘控制策略提供依据。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2014—2020年重庆市水痘疫情发病资料及疫苗接种数据,采用描述流行病学方法进行统计分析。结果 2014—2020年重庆市累计报告水痘181 551例,年均报告发病率83.79/10万,整体发病呈上升趋势(P<0.001),报告发病率从2014年的39.95/10万上升至2020年的81.88/10万;水痘发病季节性明显,每年5~6月和10~12月为水痘发病高峰期;市辖区年均发病率88.90/10万高于县67.42/10万和自治县82.50/10万;男性水痘年均发病率(87.13/10万)高于女性(80.38/10万),发病年龄主要分布在15岁以下人群,共报告143 508例(79.10%),5~9岁(37.00%)为高发年龄段,发病职业以学生133 733例(62.6%)、幼托儿童39 274例(18.40%)、散居儿童17 963例(8.4%)为主。水痘疫苗2014—2020年实际接种剂数2 302 522剂次,1剂次疫苗接种率为75.56%,二剂次疫苗接种率为32.17%。ARIMA预测2021年1~12月水痘发病数分别为2 604、811、756、1 226、2 405、3 904、2 410、1 211、2 034、6 878、10 887和8 955例。结论 重庆市水痘疫情整体呈上升趋势,且具有明显的季节、地区、人群分布特征。应加强水痘疫情的防控工作,在高发季节加强重点人群和重点机构的防控措施,加大水痘疫苗的宣传力度,提高适龄儿童两剂次水痘疫苗接种率。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of varicella in Chongqing from 2014 to 2020,and to provide evidence for the development of scientific and effective varicella control strategies.Methods Data on the outbreak of varicella and vaccination in Chongqing from 2014 to 2020 were collected through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and descriptive epidemiological methods were used for statistical analysis.Results A total of 181551 cases of varicella were reported in Chongqing from 2014 to 2020,with an average annual incidence rate of 83.79 per 100000.The incidence rate of varicella increased from 39.95 per 100000 in 2014 to 81.88 per 100000 in 2020(P<0.001).The incidence of varicella was seasonal,with the peak periods occurring from May to June and from October to December each year.The average annual incidence rate in municipal districts was 88.90/100000,higher than 67.42/100000 in counties and 82.50/100000 in autonomous counties.The average annual incidence rate of varicella in males(87.13/100000)was higher than that in females(80.38/100000).The incidence of varicella was mainly distributed in people under 15 years old,with 143508 cases(79.10%)reported,and the highest incidence age was 5-9 years old(37.00%).Among the affected occupations,133733 cases(62.6%)were students,39274 cases(18.40%)were children in nursery care,and 17963 cases(8.4%)were scattered children.The actual number of doses of varicella vaccine from 2014 to 2020 was 2302522 doses,with the coverage rates of one-dose and two-dose vaccines being 75.56%and 32.17%,respectively.ARIMA predicted that there would be 2604,811,756,1226,2405,3904,2410,1211,2034,6878,10887,and 8955 cases of varicella from January to December 2021.Conclusion The incidence of varicella in Chongqing is on the rise,with obvious seasonal,regional and population distribution characteristics.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of varicella epidemic,strengthen the prevention and control measures of key groups and key institutions in the high incidence season,strengthen the publicity of varicella vaccine,and improve the vaccination rate of two-doses of varicella vaccine for eligible children.