基于演化博弈的新疆博斯腾湖流域生态补偿机制研究

Study on the Ecological Compensation Mechanism of Bosten Lake Basin in Xinjiang Based on Evolutionary Game

流域生态补偿能有效解决资源开发利用过程中产生的外部性问题,对促进流域经济-社会-生态协同发展具有重要意义。基于演化博弈理论分析上级政府与上、下游地方政府的三方动态演化情景,以新疆博斯腾湖流域为研究对象,设定流域生态补偿机制。结果表明:上级政府对违约方征收的罚金高于流域上游生态保护成本和下游生态补偿金时,上、下游才能达到“保护”和“补偿”策略的稳定均衡状态。基于演化结果测算的博斯腾湖生态补偿金、生态保护成本分别为2.64×10^(7)、2.20×10^(7)元/a。采用“关键污染因子超标赔偿法”确定以COD_(Mn)、NH_(3)-N、TP三类污染物超标为评价依据的处罚标准分别为1312.51、9181.56、13115.08元/t。

The basin ecological compensation can effectively solve the externality issues generated in the process of resources development and utilization,and it is of great significance in promoting the coordinated development of economy⁃society⁃ecology in the basin.Based on the evolutionary game theory,this paper analyzed the tripartite dynamic evolution scenarios of the higher government and the upper and lower lo⁃cal governments.Taking the Bosten Lake basin in Xinjiang as the research object,it set up a basin ecological compensation mechanism.The results indicate that only when the fines imposed by the higher government on the defaulting party are higher than the ecological protection costs and compensation fees in the upstream and downstream of the basin,the upstream and downstream can reach a stable equilibrium state of“protection”and“compensation”strategies.Based on the evolution results,the ecological compensation and ecological protection cost of Bosten Lake are 2.64×10^(7) and 2.20×10^(7) Yuan/year.Adopting the“compensation method for key pollution factors exceeding the standard”to determine penalty standards.The penalty standards based on exceeding the standard for COD_(Mn),NH_(3)-N and TP pollutants are 1312.51,9181.56 and 13115.08 Yuan/t respectively.