国家水网工程可持续运行风险研究进展

Research Progress on Sustainable Operation Risk of National Water Network Project

为对国家水网工程可持续运行风险未来研究提供思路与可行性建议,综述了国家水网工程及相关水利工程的可持续性及运行风险研究进展。在文献阅读的基础上,初步解释了国家水网可持续性的概念,基于工程、社会、经济、生态和管理五项主要风险因子构建了国家水网工程可持续运行风险评价指标体系,认为工程风险和生态风险是影响国家水网工程可持续运行的主要风险因子。针对当前国家水网工程可持续运行风险研究存在的不足,提出了目前国家水网工程可持续运行风险评价面临的关键技术问题,指出未来需要基于国家水网工程可持续运行风险评价指标体系,识别风险因子及其发生概率,开展工程实证分析,提出风险管控模式和促进国家水网可持续运行的实施建议。

In order to provide ideas and feasible suggestions for future research on sustainable operation risk of national water network pro⁃jects,the progress of research on sustainability and operation risk of national water network projects and related water projects was reviewed.Based on the literature reading,the concept of sustainability of national water network was initially explained,and the evaluation index sys⁃tem of sustainable operation risk of national water network projects was built based on five main risk factors of engineering,social,economic,natural and management,and the engineering risk and ecological risk were considered as the main risk factors affecting the sustainable opera⁃tion of national water network projects.In view of the shortcomings of the current research on the sustainable operation risk of national water network projects,the key technical issues facing the evaluation of the sustainable operation risk of national water network projects were put forward,and it was pointed out that in the future,it is necessary to identify risk factors and their probability of occurrence based on the risk evaluation index system of national water network projects,carry out engineering empirical analysis,and propose risk control models and im⁃plementation suggestions to promote the sustainable operation of national water network.