中国植被NPP变化及其影响因素分析

Analysis of Vegetation NPP Change and Its Influencing Factors in China

为了厘清2001—2020年植被净初级生产力(net primary production,NPP)变化及其影响因素的具体作用机制,通过趋势分析研究中国植被NPP时空变化趋势,通过残差分析定量分析人类活动对植被生长变化过程中的作用,基于土地利用变化、气象、社会经济活动等数据建立结构方程模型,分析气候以及具体的人类活动对植被NPP变化的影响。结果表明:植被NPP变化及影响因素具有阶段性和区域性;植被NPP在20年间整体呈上升趋势,人类活动起到促进作用;从行政分区上看,北方等区域在前10年具有较快的增长趋势,南方等区域在后10年具有较快的增长趋势;20年间,影响植被NPP变化的驱动因子主要为气候和人为改变土地利用,在后10年则主要为人为改变土地利用的影响,气候因子影响能力降低。该研究揭示了中国植被NPP变化趋势及其影响因素的具体作用机制,对理解中国生态环境变化具有重要意义,可为制定相应的环境保护和生态恢复政策提供科学依据。

In order to clarify the specific mechanism of changes in net primary production(NPP)and its influencing factors from 2001 to 2020,the temporal and spatial change trend of vegetation NPP in China was studied through trend analysis,the role of human activities on vegetation growth and change was quantitatively analyzed through residual analysis,and structural equation models were established based on data such as land use change,meteorology,and socio-economic activities.It analyzed the effects of climate and specific human activities on vegetation NPP changes.The results showed that the changes and influencing factors of vegetation NPP were phased and regional.Vegetation NPP showed an overall upward trend in the past two decades,and human activities played a role in promoting it.From the perspective of administrative divisions,regions such as the north had a rapid growth trend in the first decade,and regions such as the south had a rapid growth trend in the next decade.In the past two decades,the driving factors affecting vegetation NPP change were mainly climate and human change land use factors,and in the second decade,it was mainly the influence of land use change by humans,and the influence capacity of climate factors decreased.This study reveals the specific mechanism of NPP change trend and influencing factors in China,which is of great significance for understanding the change of China’s ecological environment and can provide scientific basis for formulating corresponding environmental protection and ecological restoration policies.