扩大内需的潜力展望与实施路径

Prospect and Implementation Path of Potential for Expanding Domestic Demand

有效需求不足是影响我国经济高质量发展的一个关键性问题。当前,导致我国有效需求不足的主要结构性因素包括:我国居民可支配收入在国民收入中的占比较低导致居民整体消费水平偏低;个别行业产能过剩约束制造业投资增长;制造业下滑、基建投资瓶颈等多重约束下的民间投资负重前行。从更为宏观的视角看,扩大国内需求激发经济增长潜力仍然具有广阔空间,主要体现在我国居民消费结构升级空间广阔;城镇化的增量空间和存量改进空间仍然存在;高储蓄率是持续发挥有效投资关键作用的基础;推进金融高水平对外开放,可引导外资为国内资本存量提供新支撑;第二次人口红利有望接替第一次人口红利,推动经济的可持续增长。为进一步扩大内需、激发我国经济增长潜力,可从以下三个方面优化宏观调控思路,一是通过扩大中央财政赤字和改革基础货币发行机制,助力畅通国内大循环;二是向居民部门让渡部分收入,推动居民消费可持续增长;三是通过稳预期、降成本、促创新,稳定民间投资。

The insufficiency of effective demand is a pivotal impediment to the high-quality development of China's economy.At present,the relatively low proportion of residents'disposable income in national income leads to a low overall consumption level of residents;overcapacity in individual industries restricts the growth of investment in the manufacturing industry;the decline in the manufacturing industry,the bottleneck of infrastructure investment and the downward real estate industry lead to the burden of private investment.From a comprehensive macroeconomic standpoint,there is still a broad space for expanding domestic demand,which includes the upgrading of China's residents'consumption structure;the incremental space and stock improvement of urbanization still exist;the high savings rate is the basis for the key role of sustainable effective investment;the high level financial openness is expected to attract foreign capital to provide new support for the domestic capital stock;the second population dividend is expected to replace the first population dividend and promote sustainable economic growth.In order to expand domestic demand and stimulate China's economic growth potential,macroeconomic policies are expected to be optimized as follows.Firstly,boost the domestic economy by expanding the central fiscal deficit and reforming the basic currency issuance mechanism;Secondly,transfer part of the income to the residential sector to promote the sustainable growth of residents'consumption;Thirdly,promoting private investment by stabilizing expectations,reducing costs and encouraging innovation.