俄罗斯“转向东方”以来与东盟国家关系的动向及前景

Trends and Prospects for Russias Relations with ASEAN Countries since Its Turn to the East

俄罗斯“转向东方”以来,出于缓解战略压力、提升政治影响力、拉动经济增长及推动国际秩序多极化等考量,与东盟国家在政治、经济和军事领域开展了积极合作。目前,俄罗斯与东盟国家的合作已取得一定成效,但却与双方潜力明显不符。这主要是因为双方合作的进一步深入受到一些内部因素、西方制裁及大国在亚太地区地缘竞争的制约。与此同时,双方之间的战略信任、俄罗斯“转向东方”的长期迫切性及区域多边组织间的对接合作也为其持续推进与东盟国家的合作带来机遇。总体来看,俄罗斯与东盟国家增进合作有助于俄“转向东方”走深走实以及俄“大欧亚伙伴关系”倡议影响力的提升。俄罗斯与东盟关系的深化将对中俄两国在东南亚地区的战略协作提出更高要求,并将在一定程度上使亚太安全局势复杂化。

Russia has conducted active political,economic and military cooperation with the ASEAN countries.Their cooperation is incommensurate with the potentials of each party in despite of some achievements.In general,enhancing cooperation with ASEAN countries is conducive to the deepening and the practical results of Russias turn to the East,and to the enhancement of the influence of Russia's Greater Eurasian Partnership Initiative.In the meantime,it is noteworthy that the deepening of the relations between Russia and the ASEAN countries is expected to make strategic cooperation between China and Russia in Southeast Asia more difficult and complicates security situation in the Asia-Pacific region to some extent.