2016—2020年青海省区域性大到暴雨分布特征及预报指标检验

Distribution Characteristics and Forecast Index Test of Regional Heavy to Rainstorm in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2020

利用2016—2020年青海省自动气象站08:00至次日08:00逐日降水量(≥25 mm)数据,分析青海省单站和区域性大到暴雨分布特征,并根据《青海天气气候》关于青海省区域性大到暴雨预报指标内容,统计2016—2020年5—9月青海省区域性大到暴雨预报指标站常规气象要素资料。结果表明:(1)2016—2020年青海省大到暴雨降水分布呈东北西南向,平均降水量中心位于青海湖151站,达46.8 mm。(2)2016—2020年青海省区域性大到暴雨的降水中心落区绝大部分都在青海东北部,海南州出现区域性大到暴雨中心次数最多。(3)2016—2020年青海省22次区域性大到暴雨过程,均未能同时满足预报指标中的5个条件。

Using 2016~2020 automatic Qinghai meteorological station 08:00 to 08:00 daily precipitation(25 mm)data,analysis of single station and regional big to rainstorm distribution characteristics in Qinghai province,and according to the Qinghai weather climate about regional big to rainstorm forecast index in Qinghai province,statistics from May to September in 2016~2020 regional big to rainstorm forecast index station conventional meteorological elements data.The results show that:(1)from 2016 to 2020,the distribution of heavy to rainstorm precipitation in Qinghai province is northeast to southwest,and the average precipitation center is located at 151 station of Qinghai Lake,reaching 46.8 mm.(2)From 2016 to 2020,most of the precipitation center falling areas of regional heavy to rainstorm in Qinghai Province are in the northeast of Qinghai Province,and Hainan Prefecture has the largest number of regional heavy to rainstorm centers.(3)The 22 regional heavy to rainstorm processes in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2020 all failed to meet the 5 conditions in the forecast index simultaneously.