塔城市极端气温变化趋势分析及对春小麦生长的影响

Analysis of the Trend of Extreme Temperature Change in Tacheng City and Its Impact on the Growth of Spring Wheat

利用塔城市气象局1981—2022年逐月极端最高气温和极端最低气温资料,选择一元线性回归法对塔城市极端气温变化趋势进行分析,并探讨了对春小麦生长的影响。结果表明:1981—2022年塔城市年极端最高气温出现在每年的6—9月,尤以8月份出现频率最高,9月份出现频率最低;极端最低气温出现在每年的12月到次年2月,以1月份出现频率最高,12月份出现频率最低;1981—2022年塔城市极端最高气温的平均值为36.3℃,整体以下降趋势为主,气候变化倾向率为-1.769℃/10年,下降趋势极为显著;极端最低气温平均值-8.8℃,整体呈现出下降的趋势,气候变化倾向率为-2.6℃/10年,下降趋势极为显著;塔城市的极端气温年较差相对较大,年较差的最小值为39.2℃(1993年),最高值为53.4℃(2011年),年较差的平均值为45.1℃。

This article uses the monthly extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature data from the Meteorological Bureau of Tacheng City from 1981 to 2022 to analyze the trend of extreme temperature changes in Tacheng City using the univariate linear regression method,and explores the impact on spring wheat growth.The results show that the annual extreme highest temperature in Tacheng City from 1981 to 2022 occurred from June to September each year,with the highest frequency occurring in August and the lowest frequency occurring in September;The extreme minimum temperature occurs from December to February of the following year,with the highest frequency occurring in January and the lowest frequency occurring in December;The average extreme maximum temperature in Tacheng City from 1981 to 2022 was 36.3℃,with an overall downward trend.The climate change trend rate was-1.769℃/10 a,with a very significant downward trend;The average extreme minimum temperature is-8.8℃,showing an overall downward trend.The climate change trend rate is-2.6℃/10 a,and the downward trend is extremely significant;The annual range of extreme temperatures in Tacheng City is relatively large,with a minimum value of 39.2℃(1993),a maximum value of 53.4℃(2011),and an average value of 45.1℃.