九江市强降水风险预警叫应阈值研究

Research on the Response Threshold of Strong Precipitation Risk Warning in Jiujiang City

强降水是九江影响最大、损失最重的气象灾害,具有较强的突发性、局地性和致灾性。针对降水与成灾之间的时间差,综合分析了隐患点数量、历史灾害等情况,建立了强降雨可能导致的灾害风险等级,结合降水历史重现期建立了精细化的风险叫应阈值,并根据降水量提前开展了风险叫应,有利于为相关部门科学、精准防范和提前转移赢得更多时间,进一步实现防灾减灾关口前移,降低强降水气象灾害风险。

Heavy precipitation was the meteorological disaster that has the greatest impact and heavy losses on Jiujiang,and it has strong suddenness,locality,and disaster causing characteristics.For the time difference between precipitation and disaster,the article comprehensively analyzed the number of hidden points,historical disasters,etc.,set up the heavy rainfall may lead to disaster risk level,combined with the precipitation history period established the fine risk should be threshold,and according to the precipitation in advance risk,for related departments of science,accurate prevention and transfer to win more time,further realize disaster prevention and mitigation of reach forward,reduce the risk of heavy rainfall meteorological disaster.