敦煌市干旱灾害统计分析及防灾减灾对策

Statistical Analysis of Drought Disasters in Dunhuang City and Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Reduction

利用敦煌市气象局提供的2005—2022年逐月降水量和年干旱次数资料,选择一元线性回归法对敦煌市降水量和干旱灾害进行统计分析,并提出相应的防灾减灾对策。结果表明:2005—2022年敦煌市年降水量平均值为45.6 mm,整体呈现出下降的趋势,气候变化倾向率为-5.055 mm/10年,下降趋势不显著;四季降水量均呈现出不同程度的下降趋势,气候变化倾向率分别为-3.572、-1.586、-2.297、-0.165 mm/10年,以春季降水量对年降水量下降的贡献最大;近18年敦煌市干旱灾害主要出现53次,其中春旱24次,占45.3%,整体以下降趋势为主,变化倾向率为-5.055 mm/10年,下降趋势不显著;夏旱29次,占54.7%,整体以上升趋势为主,变化倾向率为0.341次/10年,上升趋势较为显著。

This article uses the monthly precipitation and annual drought frequency data provided by the Dunhuang Meteorological Bureau from 2005 to 2022,selects the univariate linear regression method to statistically analyze the precipitation and drought disasters in Dunhuang City,and provides several disaster prevention and reduction strategies.The results show that the average annual precipitation in Dunhuang City from 2005 to 2022 was 45.6 mm,showing an overall downward trend.The climate change trend rate was-5.055 mm/10 a,and the downward trend was not significant;The precipitation in spring,summer,autumn,and winter showed varying degrees of decreasing trends,with climate change tendency rates of-3.572,-1.586,-2.297,and-0.165 mm/10 a,respectively.Especially,spring precipitation contributed the most to the decrease in annual precipitation;In the past 18 years,there have been 53 major drought disasters in Dunhuang City,including 24 spring droughts,accounting for 45.3%.The overall trend was mainly downward,with a trend rate of-5.055 mm/10 a,and the downward trend was not significant;Summer drought occurred 29 times,accounting for 54.7%,with an overall upward trend being the main trend.The trend rate of change was 0.341 times per 10 years,indicating a significant upward trend.