中国电网全生命周期碳排放及发电结构转型路径规划研究

Whole life cycle carbon emission and power generation structure transformation pathway planning of China’s power

为评估中国电网全生命周期碳排放强度并研究其转型达峰路径,首先提出全国和各地区电网全生命周期碳排放因子测算模型,测算历年全网全生命周期碳排放强度并分析其影响因素;其次利用情景分析法,分析不同电力转型情景下2022—2060年我国电网全生命周期碳排放量及其达峰情况。研究表明:(1)2011—2021年我国发电结构转型取得一定成效,全网全生命周期碳排放因子由763.94 g/(kW·h)降至557.73 g/(kW·h);但清洁能源发电减少的碳排放量无法平衡火电增加的碳排放量,全网全生命周期碳排放量仍以年均2.6%的速度增长,由36.1亿t增至46.8亿t。(2)发电结构清洁化和煤电减碳技术进步是降低全网全生命周期碳排放强度的重要举措。(3)快转型情景、基准情景、慢转型情景下我国电网全生命周期碳排放量可分别于2025、2027、2030年达峰,基准情景的碳排放量峰值为52.05亿t,2060年碳排放量为15.78亿t。

To evaluate the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry and analyze its peak emission pathway,a calculation model for the national and regional power grid lifecycle carbon emission factors had been proposed,at the same time,the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of power over the years and its influencing factors had been measured.Then,using scenario analysis,the lifecycle carbon emissions and its peak situation of the power industry from 2022 to 2060 under different power transformation scenarios had been analyzed.The results show that:(1)From 2011 to 2021,China had achieved certain results in transforming its power generation structure.The lifecycle carbon emission factor of the national power grid decreased from 763.94 to 557.73 g/(kW∙h).However,the reduction in carbon emissions from clean energy generation was unable to offset the increase in carbon emissions from thermal power,resulting in the lifecycle carbon emissions of the power industry still growing at an average annual rate of 2.6%,increasing from 3.61 Gt to 4.68 Gt.(2)The transition to cleaner power generation and advancement in decarbonization technologies for coal power are important measures to reduce the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry.(3)Under the fast transition scenario,the baseline scenario,and the slow transition scenario,China’s lifecycle carbon emissions from power industry can reach the peak in 2025,2027 and 2030,respectively,and the baseline scenario will have a peak of 5.205 Gt carbon emissions and 1.578 Gt carbon emissions in 2060,which is lower than the carbon absorption capacity of China’s natural ecosystems.