我国产业链现代化的优化路径研究

Research on the Optimization Path of Modernization of China's Industrial Chain

产业链现代化是党中央的重大谋划和战略部署,是当前和今后一个时期内我国经济发展中的重大战略任务。关于如何提升产业链现代化水平,(1)本文从多个方面寻找产业链现代化的影响因素;(2)利用随机森林模型识别各要素对产业链现代化的贡献程度,找出对产业链现代化影响较大的要素;(3)利用偏效应模型揭示不同要素对产业链现代化的边际效应,探究各地区如何依据自身状况找到产业链现代化发展的最优路径。研究发现:(1)产业链现代化的驱动要素包括社会需求、科技创新、制度安排和资源禀赋4个部分;(2)不同要素对产业链现代化的边际贡献处于不同阶段,科技创新对产业链现代化的贡献最大,资源禀赋对产业链现代化的贡献最小;(3)不同地区产业链现代化的投入要素的发展差异较大,不同地区产业链现代化进入最优区间的路径不尽相同。

The modernization of the industrial chain is deployed by the central government of China,and is a major strategic task in China's economic development in the current and future period.Firstly,this paper explores the factors that affect the mode⁃rnization of the industrial chain from different perspectives.Secondly,the Random forest model is used to identify the contribution rate and importance of each element to the modernization of the industrial chain.Finally,the partial effect model is used to reveal the marginal effects of different factors on the modernization of the industrial chain,and to explore how each region can find the op⁃timal path for the development of industrial chain modernization based on its own situation.The research finds that:first,the dri⁃ving factors of industrial chain modernization include four parts:social demand,scientific and technological innovation,institutional arrangement and resource endowment.Secondly,the marginal contributions of different factors to the modernization of the industrial chain are at different stages,with technological innovation contributing the most to the modernization of the industrial chain,and resource endowments contributing the least to the modernization of the industrial chain.Thirdly,there are significant differences in the development of investment factors for industrial chain modernization in different regions,and the paths for industrial chain mode⁃rnization to enter the optimal range vary among different regions.