碳试点政策冲击下的地区工业全要素生产率增长分析

Analysis of Regional Industrial Total Factor Productivity Growth Under the Impact of Carbon Pilot Policies

本文基于DEA-Malmquist指数方法测算了我国各省(区、市)2003~2022年的工业全要素生产率,通过双重差分法研究发现碳交易试点政策有助于促进碳试点地区工业全要素生产率增长,并发现在2013~2022年间,碳试点地区工业全要素生产率的增长主要来源于纯技术进步和纯技术效率提升,规模效率提升的贡献相对较低。具体的,在2013~2022年间,纯技术效率、纯技术进步和规模效率所作的平均贡献分别为56.8%、36.9%和6.3%。但是从变化趋势来看,近年来碳试点地区依赖于纯技术效率提升和纯技术进步实现工业全要素生产率增长的空间在不断缩小,规模效率提升所发挥的作用在稳步增强,在2019~2022年、2020~2022年以及2021~2022年3个样本期内,规模效率提升所作的平均贡献均超过了20%,未来碳试点地区工业全要素生产率增长将愈发依托规模效率改善的增长模式。

This article first calculates the industrial total factor productivity of various provinces in China from 2003 to 2022 based on the DEA Malmquist index method.Through the double difference method,it is found that carbon trading pilot policies help promote the growth of regional industrial total factor productivity.This article also analyzes the growth sources of industrial total factor productivity in carbon pilot areas based on the DEA Malmquist index method.It is found that between 2013 and 2022,the growth of industrial total factor productivity in carbon pilot areas mainly comes from pure technological progress and pure technologi⁃cal efficiency improvement,and the contribution of scale efficiency improvement is relatively low.Specifically,between 2013 and 2022,the average contributions of pure technological efficiency,pure technological progress,and scale efficiency were 568%,369%and 63%,respectively.However,from the perspective of changing trends,in recent years,the space for carbon pilot a⁃reas to achieve industrial total factor productivity growth relying on pure technological efficiency improvement and pure technological progress has been continuously shrinking,and the role of scale efficiency improvement has been steadily increasing.In the three sample periods of 2019~2022,2020~2022,and 2021~2022,the average contribution of scale efficiency improvement has excee⁃ded 20%,The future growth of regional industrial total factor productivity will increasingly rely on the growth model of improving scale efficiency.