“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线区域入境旅游发展的政策效应评价

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the development of inbound tourism in China

以2007—2019年中国31个省(区、市)面板数据,结合超效率及全局Malmquist指数与PSM-DID法实证检验“一带一路”倡议对入境旅游发展的政策效应。研究表明:①入境旅游的平均发展能力呈现为正增长,但产业空间格局差异仍未缓解,“一路”区域空间集聚明显,“一带”区域趋向空间极化发展;②倡议显著提高了沿线区域的入境旅游效率,但其实施效果具有滞后性,“一路”区域的政策响应优于“一带”;③倡议的政策效应具有区域异质性,经济发展水平与旅游交通条件对倡议的影响存在差异,结构红利与政策驱动效应显著,但旅游产业内核基础条件亟需提升,交通设施和资源要素优化应成为未来的提升关键。

The implementation of the Belt and Road initiative has brought a new development pattern for China’s inbound tourism.How to identify the policy effects brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative,and analyze the different mechanisms of its role towards a differentiated policy support environment is a key issue to effectively enhance the policy implementation effect in order to guide different regional tourism industries to grasp the development strategy.This paper empirically examines the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on the development of inbound tourism using a panel of 31 Chinese provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2007 to 2019,combining super-efficiency and global Malmquist indices with the PSMDID(Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Difference)method.The research results are as follows:1)The Belt and Road initiative has led to a positive trend in the average development capacity of inbound tourism,and the development level of the tourism industry has been effectively improved,but the analysis of the dynamic evolution of efficiency shows that the differences in the spatial pattern of China’s inbound tourism industry have not yet been effectively alleviated,which is manifested in the obvious spatial agglomeration of the“one road”region and the tendency of the“one belt”region to develop towards spatial polarization;2)A quasi-natural experiment based on PSM-DID,using benchmark regression analysis and robustness tests,verified that the Belt and Road Initiative did significantly improve the efficiency of inbound tourism in the regions along the route,but the results of the dynamic effects test indicated that the implementation effect of the initiative lagged in both the Belt and Road regions,and that the policy response and the intensity of the policy effect were better in the Road region than in the Belt region;3)The policy effects of the Belt and Road initiative are regionally heterogeneous.A study of the differences in the mechanism of action of the external support environment on the implementation of the initiative found that external industrial factors such as the level of economic development and the level of openness to the outside world show significant promotion effects,and structural dividends and policy-driven effects are significant,while tourism traffic conditions and resource abundance show significant regional heterogeneity in the policy effects of the initiative,and there are phenomena that are not significant or inhibit the development of inbound tourism,indicating that the core infrastructure conditions of the tourism industry need to be improved,and the optimization of traffic facilities and resource factors should be the key to future improvement.Therefore,the strategic guidance of the initiative on inbound tourism should be implemented in a differentiated manner for the provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)along the Belt and Road according to the different policy responses and impact mechanisms of the initiative in the Belt and Road regions,so as to promote the effective seizure of policy development opportunities in the regions along the Belt and Road and truly reduce the distance between and within the regions in terms of industrial development,as well as to establish a synergistic internal and external inbound tourism industry chain in order to realize the progressive and synergistic development of the whole region.