考虑节点中断风险的弹性供应链设计方法

A resilient supply chain design method considering node disruption risk

供应链全球化发展为企业带来广阔前景,但庞大的供应链体系也造成供应链中断风险激增,为企业带来了巨大潜在风险。然而,由于供应链中断风险难以预知,针对中断的弹性供应链优化设计方法还远不成熟。在此背景下,建立了一种新颖的弹性供应链设计优化方法,旨在增强供应链抵御中断的能力。提出并定义了节点中断风险评价指标(NDII),以反映节点中断对供应链的影响程度。定义风险系数(RW)以表征供应链风险程度,避免了对风险场景及其概率分布的预测,同时体现企业对供应链弹性的重视程度。基于鲁棒优化(RO)方法,建立了对高风险节点惩罚的NDII-RO优化方法,并应用于广东省生物燃料供应链优化设计。优化结果表明该方法可实现抵御中断风险的弹性供应链设计。

The global development of supply chains has brought broad prospects to enterprises,but huge supply chain systems are faced with increasing risk of disruption,bringing huge potential risks to enterprises.Nevertheless,due to the unpredictability of these disruptions,the design of resilient supply chains to effectively mitigate disruptions remains an underdeveloped field.Against this background,this paper establishes a novel resilient supply chain design optimization method aimed at enhancing the supply chain’s ability to withstand disruptions.Node disruption impact index(NDII)is introduced and defined to reflect the severity of node disruptions.Risk weight(RW)is defined to represent the degree of supply chain risk,thus avoiding predictions regarding risk scenarios and their probability distributions.RW also highlights the importance enterprises place on supply chain resilience.Based on robust optimization(RO)techniques,we establish an NDII-RO optimization framework that penalizes high-risk nodes.This method is applied to the optimization of a biofuel supply chain in Guangdong province.The optimization results demonstrate that this approach is capable of achieving a resilient supply chain design that can withstand disruptions.