上海市苏州河高水位成因分析及对策研究

Cause analysis and countermeasures of rising flood stage in Suzhou River in Shanghai City

近年来,上海市苏州河水位抬升趋势明显,高水位屡次超历史纪录。为分析苏州河高水位抬升趋势和2212号台风“梅花”期间高水位成因,探索高水位变化对策,采用趋势检验法对水位年极值序列进行了趋势检验,并用模型反演台风“梅花”期间水情过程。通过分析,在现状工情水情下,台风“梅花”期间暴雨和风暴潮增水2种影响因子对高水位的影响比例为8∶2。未来,待苏州河西闸和苏州河深隧建成后参与调度,苏州河最高水位可降低0.26 m,若新建黄浦江河口闸,苏州河最高水位可降低0.55 m,可显著提升苏州河两岸尤其是上海市中心城区的防洪排涝能力。

In recent years,the stage rising trend of the Suzhou River has been significant,and the flood stage has repeatedly exceeded historical records.In order to analyze the situation and the causes of the flood stage during the Typhoon Muifa in 2022,and explore the countermeasures for the flood stage changes,we use the Mann-Kendall trend test and Spearman trend test to analyze the annual extreme value series of stage,and use the hydrologic model method to invert the flood stage process during the Typhoon Muifa.Under the current engineering situation,the contribution ratio of the two factors both torrential rain and storm surge during the Typhoon Muifa,to the flood stage is about 8∶2.In the future,if the new West Gate of the Suzhou River and the Deep Tunnel project of the Suzhou River participate in project scheduling,the maximum flood stage of the Suzhou River can be reduced by 0.26 m.If the new Huangpu River estuary gate is built,the maximum flood stage of the Suzhou River can be reduced by 0.55 m.These projects can significantly improve the flood and drainage capacity on both sides of the Suzhou River,especially in the central urban of Shanghai city.