美欧制裁对俄罗斯经济增长的影响——基于合成控制双重差分的两阶段对比分析

The Impacts of U.S.-European Sanctions on Russia's Economic Growth:A Two-Stage Comparative Analysis Based on SDID Model

在美欧制裁下,俄罗斯经济表现出一定的韧性和复苏能力,其内在逻辑是什么,制裁对经济的实际影响程度如何,已有研究的事件解析和过程分析方法都因为缺乏比较基准和多样本对比,而无法给出令人满意的答案。本文在归纳整理美欧制裁俄罗斯的政策要点和制裁逻辑的基础上,为研判制裁影响俄罗斯经济增长的程度和方向确立了两个基准,即制裁造成的俄罗斯经济增长对潜在增长率和基准增长的偏离,重点是对基准增长的偏离。为此,运用合成控制双重差分法(SDID)构造了一个“合成俄罗斯”作为比较基准,比较俄罗斯GDP增长率和“合成俄罗斯”增长率的差异。研究发现,美欧经济制裁确实对俄罗斯经济增长造成了负面冲击和影响。从实证结果看,俄乌冲突爆发后美欧对俄“极限制裁”的短期影响效果大于克里米亚事件后的“温和制裁”,俄经济增长对潜在增长率的偏离幅度较大。从长期来看,俄罗斯经济对制裁的适应性调整和对经济增长内生动力的调整可以对冲制裁的影响,并有可能转向新的增长模式。

A literature review shows that international sanctions,as a policy tool adopted by sovereign countries or intergovernmental international organizations to force one or some specific international actors to change their political stance and behavior,although its influence comes from the moral binding force of sanctions or the so-called fairness and justice to a certain extent,its actual lasting influence comes from the structural power of the sanctions implementer in international affairs in the implementation process.What is the internal logic of Russia's economic resilience and recovery ability after sanctions?What is the actual impact of sanctions on the economy?The existing methods of event analysis and process analysis cannot give satisfactory answers because of the lack of comparative benchmarks and multi-sample comparison.On the basis of summarizing the policy points and logic of sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S.and Europe,this paper establishes two benchmarks for judging the degree and direction of sanctions affecting Russia's economic growth,namely,the deviation of Russia's economic growth from potential growth rate caused by sanctions and the deviation of Russia's economic growth from benchmark growth caused by sanctions.Among them,the second judgment is the focus of the study.Therefore,this study constructs a"synthetic Russia"as a comparison benchmark by using the Synthetic Difference in Difference Estimation(SDID),and finally compares the difference between the GDP growth rate of Russia and the GDP growth rate of"synthetic Russia".This study concludes that the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S.and Europe have indeed had a negative impact on Russia's economic growth.From the empirical results,the short-term impact of"extreme sanctions"against Russia after 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict is greater than that of"moderate sanctions"after the 2014 Crimea crisis.The deviation of Russia's economic growth from the potential growth rate in the first year of extreme sanctions is about 3 percentage points,and the deviation from the benchmark economic growth rate of"synthetic Russia"is also significantly downward.In the long run,the adaptation of the Russia's economy to sanctions and the adjustment of endogenous economic growth drivers can hedge the impact of sanctions and potentially shift towards new growth models.