我国物流业2023年发展回顾与2024年展望

The Review of China's Logistics Industry Development in 2023 and the Outlook of 2024

2023年,我国经济实现恢复发展,物流需求稳步复苏,物流业在国民经济中的地位持续提升,物流供给质量稳步提高,物流运行环境持续改善,现代物流发展模式稳步转换,企业竞争力持续增强,全行业正在进入新的阶段。主要表现在八个方面:一是物流市场实现恢复增长;二是提质增效降本稳步推进;三是供应链物流引领转型发展;四是一流企业提升产业竞争力;五是创新驱动打造新质生产力;六是物流网络布局均衡发展;七是绿色低碳物流影响提升;八是制度保障优化营商环境。但是,我国物流业也面临一系列比较紧迫的问题,结构调整叠加有效需求偏弱,物流需求仍处于恢复期,需求不足企业占比较高,企业经营普遍承压,社会物流总额增速低于GDP增速,短期内行业新动能难以撬动存量大市场,现代物流正进入温和增长阶段,需要妥善应对。我国高度重视现代物流发展,建设现代物流体系是建设物流强国、构建新发展格局的重要支撑和保障。2023年底的中央经济工作会议强调,要有效降低全社会物流成本。尽管经过多年持续推进物流降本工作,但是无论从经济结构、货物结构、产业布局等宏观层面看,还是从市场主体、方式手段、主要环节、政策措施等微观方面看,我国未来一段时期进一步推动降本的难度仍然较大。为进一步提升物流业竞争力、有效降低全社会物流成本、助力实体经济高质量发展,必须改变我国传统物流低价格、低效率、低效益的现实,通过激发物流需求侧变革动力、再造物流全链条组织方式、用好物流新质生产力、发力现代化基础设施、支撑供应链韧性安全,打造我国现代物流发展新模式,激发产业升级新活力。可以预计,2024年及未来一段时期,我国物流业将呈现出一系列新趋势:一是大盘稳定,市场保持温和增长;二是结构调整,需求贡献持续分化;三是提质增效,物流降本仍有空间;四是产业融合,全链条系统化整合;五是市场导向,规模化集约化发展;六是韧性安全,保供稳链更为迫切;七是设施联通,物流网络高效畅通;八是创新驱动,数字化转型提速;九是绿色低碳,物流社会价值提升;十是多方合力,行业共治统筹协调。

In 2023,China’s economy realized recover and the logistics demand recovered steadily,the position of the logistics industry in the national economy continued to improve,the quality of logistics supply continued to improve,the logistics operating environment continued to improve,the modern logistics development model was transformed steadily,the competitiveness of enterprises continued to increase,and the whole industry was entering a new stage.This is mainly reflected in eight aspects:first,the logistics market has achieved recovery and growth;second,the improvement of quality,efficiency,and cost reduction has been steadily advanced;third,supply chain logistics leads the transformation and development;fourth,first-class enterprises enhance their industrial competitiveness;fifth,innovation drives the creation of new quality productive forces;sixth,balanced development has been achieved in terms of logistics network layout;seventh,the impact of green and low-carbon logistics has been enhanced;and eighth,institutional guarantees and optimizes the business environment.However,at the same time,China's logistics industry is also facing a series of urgent problems,such as structural adjustments and weak effective demand.Logistics demand is still in the recovery period,and the proportion of enterprises with insufficient demand is relatively high.Enterprise operations are generally under pressure,and the total growth rate of social logistics is lower than GDP growth.In the short term,new industry momentum is difficult to leverage the large stock market,and modern logistics is entering a stage of moderate growth,which needs to be properly addressed.China attaches great importance to the development of modern logistics,and building a modern logistics system is an important support and guarantee for building a logistics power and building a new development pattern.It was emphasized at the Central Economic Work Conference,which was held at the end of 2023,that we have to effectively reduce logistic cost in the whole society.However,after years of continuous promotion of logistics cost reduction,the difficulty of further promoting cost reduction will increase in the coming period,whether from the macro perspectives of economic structure,goods structure,industrial layout,or from the micro perspectives of market entities,methods,main links,and policies and measures.In order to further enhance the competitiveness of the logistics industry,effectively reduce the logistics costs of the whole society,and support the high-quality development of the real economy,it is necessary to change China's traditional logistics development model of low price,low efficiency,and low profit.By stimulating the demand side of logistics reform,reconstructing the entire logistics chain organization,making good use of new quality productive force in the logistics industry,promoting modern infrastructure,and supporting supply chain resilience and security,we must create a new model of modern logistics development in China,and stimulate new vitality in industrial upgrading.It can be expected that in 2024 and a period in the future,China's logistics industry will show some new development trends:first,the overall market will remain stable and the market will maintain moderate growth;second,structural adjustment will be further implemented,and demand contribution will be continuously differentiated;third,quality and efficiency will be further improved,and there is still room for logistics cost reduction;fourth,industrial integration and systematic integration of the entire chain will be further improved;fifth,market-oriented and intensive development with large scale will be realized;sixth,resilience&safety,supply ensuring and stable supply chain is more urgent;seventh,facility connectivity,efficient and smooth logistics network will be realized;eighth,innovation driven and digital transformation will be accelerated;ninth,green&low-carbon and the social value of logistics will be enhanced;and tenth,industry governance and overall coordination will be realized with the help of the joint efforts of multiple parties.