日本强化东盟国家海上安保能力的政策及影响分析

Japan's Policies of Strengthening the Maritime Security Capabilities of ASEAN:Evolu⁃tion,Comparison and Implications

利用东盟国家在南海问题上发难,是日本牵制中国、呼应美国的重要政策手段。基于这一地缘政治考虑,日本主要从海域态势感知、海上执法与海上防卫等三个方面为东盟强化海上安保能力提供支持。为了评估这一政策的具体落实及其对南海局势的实际影响,本文从地缘政治视角出发,对日本支持东盟强化海上安保能力进行了系统评估,并以南海争端中两个主要争议方越南、菲律宾为重点,分析了日本政策的演进及其特点。总体上看,日本的支持提高了相关东盟国家海上安保能力现代化的水平,增强了相关东盟国家对抗中国的信心,增加了南海冲突发生的机率,从而成为恶化南海局势的重要外部诱因。与此同时,日本政策及其影响受到东盟大国平衡立场以及不同成员国认知的限制。展望未来,日本在美国的鼓励与要求下还会进一步强化其对东南亚局势的介入,部分东盟国家特别是菲律宾与日本的互动可能进一步强化,中国维护南海的和平与稳定的努力也将面临更大的挑战。

Leveraging some ASEAN member states in the South China Sea is a key policy approach for Japan to contain China while aligning with the United States.Because of these geopolitical calculations,Japan has extended support to ASEAN countries primarily in three dimensions of maritime security capabilities:awareness of maritime situation,maritime law enforcement,and maritime defense.To assess the implementation of these policies and their actual impact on the South China Sea situation,this paper systematically evaluates Japans support in the last years,with a particular emphasis on the two main parties in the South China Sea disputes,Vietnam and the Philippines.In sum,Japans support has elevated the modernization of maritime security capabilities,fostered confidence among these nations in countering China which increased the probability of conflicts in the South China Sea,and made Japan emerged as a significant external factor in exacerbating the regional situation.The effectiveness of Japans policies was constrained by the balance of power within the ASEAN and different perceptions among ASEAN countries.Looking ahead,owing to encouragement and demands from the United States,Japan is poised to further intensify its involvement in the Southeast Asian landscape and its interaction with the Philippines.Consequently,China is facing more challenge in the mainte⁃nance of peace and stability in the South China Sea.