风险偏好、资产专用性与中东欧小国对华政策选择——以立陶宛、塞尔维亚、匈牙利为例

Risk Preference,Asset Specificity,and Policy Choices for Central and Eastern European Countries towards China——A case study of Lithuania,Serbia and Hungary

国际关系史上,小国一般会选择追随某一强国或加入某一阵营,但在百年变局及大国关系深刻调整的今天,中东欧小国无法简单地在中美之间选边站,而是基于风险偏好和大国的资产专用性调整外交政策。当小国属于风险寻求且大国的资产专用性较弱时会选择制衡;当小国属于风险回避且大国的资产专用性较强时会选择追随;当小国属于风险寻求且大国的资产专用性较强时会选择对冲。本文以立陶宛、塞尔维亚、匈牙利三个中东欧国家对华政策的调整为案例进行检验,验证了研究假设。

At present,the competition between China and the United States is intensifying,and changes in the international situation make small countries with strong vulnerability more cautious in their foreign policy choices.In the history of international relations,small countries generally choose to follow one of the great powers or join one of the camps.However,in todays century of changes and profound adjustment of great power relations,Central and Eastern Euro⁃pean Countries cannot simply choose between China and the United States They have to consider the influence of their own national strength,leaderspreference,and the comprehensive strength and policies of the great powers.When a small country faces a big country,if it is risk-seeking and the big countrys asset specificity is weak,then the small country will choose confrontation.When the smaller countries remain risk-averse and the larger countries have greater asset speci⁃ficity,the former will cooperate.When the small countries choose to seek risk but the big coun⁃tries have strong asset specificity,the small countries will choose to verbally confront but actually cooperate.This paper selects two variables,risk preference and asset specificity,and tests the adjustment policies towards China with the cases of Lithuania,Serbia and Hungary.